This is the state of the 2020 Oscars race. At the end of every month, I’m going to take a look at the state of the Oscars race — breaking down the contenders that made a splash, those that fizzled out, and the ones to come.
317 days until the 2020 Oscars
Oscar contenders that were released this month
By this time last year, three Oscar-nominated films had premiered — Best Picture nominee Black Panther, Best Animated Feature nominee Isle of Dogs, and Best Visual Effects nominee Ready Player One.
Most notably, it was the second year in a row that a best picture nominee was released in the first quarter of the year — Get Out was released in February 2017. And what do Get Out and Black Panther have in common? They were both massive hits at the box office. It makes sense considering it takes a lot for a voter to remember your film almost a year later.
2019 has been notably slow at the box office, but there have been two massive hits that could be in the Oscar conversation. Funny enough, they both have connections to past early Oscar contenders:
Us
Jordan Peele’s follow-up to Get Out scored a massive opening weekend that set a new record for a live-action original film. It’s clear that we’re witnessing the beginning of one of the biggest filmmakers of our generation.
Us received universal acclaim from critics — including a positive review from me — that should help bolster its award chances. However, it’s going to have to contend with a more mixed audience reaction with its ‘B’ cinema score.
Even if it doesn’t repeat the success of Get Out, the movie is in the hunt for nominations in Best Original Screenplay — Peele won this category in 2017 — and Best Actress for Lupita N’yongo — it would be her second nomination after winning Supporting Actress in 2013 for 12 Years a Slave.
Captain Marvel
Black Panther finally broke the barrier for a superhero movie in the Best Picture category after The Dark Knight’s snub in 2008 drove The Academy to make changes to give blockbusters a better chance at being nominated.
Now that the barrier has been broken, it could bode well for Captain Marvel, which debuted to stellar box office numbers this month.
It also helps that the move has the prestige of 2015 Best Actress winner Brie Larson and director Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck who directed Ryan Gosling to his first Oscar nomination.
However, Black Panther set all-time box office records, received rave reviews, and became a cultural phenomenon. And even it couldn’t bag a Best Director nomination. Even though Marvel finally broke through at the Oscars, I think it’s going to take a lot for another one to be nominated.
Where Captain Marvel will have better chances is the Best Visual Effects category.
Oscar contenders that are coming next month
While summer blockbuster season technically doesn’t start until May, some studios are opting for the less crowded springtime. And that includes what has a good chance at being the biggest movie of the year — and maybe of all-time. One word: Endgame.
Avengers: Endgame
Touted as a “series finale” to the sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, Endgame is almost certainly going to be a commercial and cultural hit. Though Black Panther beat it at the domestic box office, Infinity War sits at number 4 on the all-time worldwide box office and Endgame will only build on that. It could also build on Infinity War’s Oscars performance — it only received one nomination for Best Visual Effects.
One could make the argument that if Black Panther hadn’t preceded it Infinity War could have snuck into the Best Picture category — I’m not one of those people. But what Endgame has going for it is the Lord of the Rings: Return of the King factor. That movie isn’t regarded as well as the first in the series, but because it was the final movie, voters gave it Best Picture as an award for the trilogy as a whole.
Whatever you think of the MCU, you have to admit it was an impressive feat — voters might feel inclined to reward it.
And in Oscars news…
Another host-less ceremony?
In an interview with The Hollywood Reporter, ABC entertainment president Karey Burke said regarding the possibility of a host-less 2020 Oscars, “we’re having those conversations with the Academy right now. We are extremely happy with how the show went. Odds are you’ll see us repeating what we consider to be a successful formula.”
Personally, I liked the host-less format. It gave more focus on the awards and speeches — that’s what I’m there for. Let’s hope.
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.