Best Film Editing is a very important category at the Oscars. You need to be at least nominated in the category to win. Last year’s Best Picture winner “Birdman” was an anomalous case since it was edited to look as if it was filmed in one take. So ignoring that year, the last time the Best Picture winner wasn’t nominated in this category was 1981 when “Ordinary People” won. However, that usually doesn’t go for the winner. Best Picture and Best Film Editing match up about half the time. Usually, the winner tends to be the film with the most editing like “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “The Social Network,” and last year’s winner “Whiplash.”
However, another statistic that some pundits often don’t consider is that the winner often takes at least one other tech category with it. Since 1990, only two movies won Best Film Editing without taking at least one other tech award: “Traffic” (2001) and “Unforgiven” (1992). “The Big Short,” which arguably has the most editing, isn’t even nominated in another tech category. This doesn’t take them out of the conversation, but I think it’s more likely that one of the two tech heavy films are going to win.
“The Revenant” is poised to win at least two and maybe three over-the-line categories, Best Director and Best Actor, and is the frontrunner in at least two tech categories, Best Cinematography and either of the sound categories. However, it lost out to “Mad Max: Fury Road” at Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and most importantly the ACE Eddies. I think that makes it the solid frontrunner that will make it all the way.
The only other scenario I could see playing out is that “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” goes on a streak of their technical awards and takes this category along with them.
Check out all our 2016 Oscar predictions here!
*My “if I had an Oscar ballot” pick
Rankings:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road*
2. The Revenant
3. The Big Short
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Spotlight
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Steve Jobs,” “The Martian,” “Room”
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.