The Oscars are over, which means it’s time to turn our attention to the Television kudos, the Emmys and our 2016 Emmy Predictions! Last year was an odd year for the Emmys with several different changes giving us surprise winners. Of the most important changes:
- During the nomination process in lead and supporting categories, there will be six nominees as usual. However, there can be seven or eight nominees if the seventh and eighth place person on that ballot comes with 2% of the sixth place person. That’s why we had seven nominees in Lead Actor in a Comedy Series and Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Instead of panels reviewing submitted episodes of the nominees, the full Television Academy is able to vote.
The second rule showed the most obvious effect with winners like Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) and Allison Janney (“Mom”) winning by lazy name checking rather than their tapes. Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”) and Anna Chlumsky (“Veep”) easily had the best tapes in their respective categories.
This is why this year at the Emmys is going to be the most interesting. Now that we’ve seen how this new system affects the winners and nominees, we can better predict the winners. On the drama side, Emmy heavy-hitter “Mad Men” opens up spots in several categories. Most importantly, Best Drama Series.
This year has been a particularly weak one, so there won’t be much movement.
Last year’s winner “Game of Thrones” will easily make it back into the race as well as perennial nominees “House of Cards” and “Downton Abbey.” First-time nominee “Better Call Saul” will make it back in as well following a strong year of nominations last year. Despite only receiving three nominations last year, “Orange is the New Black.” which was moved to drama after a new rule defining dramas as an hour-long, should make it back in because of the weak field.
That leaves two spots open. Golden Globe winner “Mr. Robot” has the best chance of any new show this season of breaking into the race. With the lack of contenders, it should be able to do it. That leaves the last spot to either previous winner “Homeland” and Netflix newcomer “Narcos.” Both series received generally positive reviews this year. However, the buzz for the former just doesn’t seem to be there
BEST DRAMA SERIES
1. Game of Thrones
2. House of Cards
3. Better Call Saul
4. Mr. Robot
5. Downton Abbey
6. Orange is the New Black
7. Narcos
8. Homeland
9. Vinyl
10. The Good Wife
The comedy side is quite the opposite. There is an abundant of contenders. However, it’s certain that previous winners “Veep” and “Modern Family” will return. “Transparent” will also come back following a great performance in nominations last year. After those three contenders, the waters get a little murky. Aziz Ansari’s highly acclaimed Netflix show “Master of None” has a great chance of breaking into the race after nominations at the Golden Globes and a win at Critics’ Choice. Perennial nominee “Silicon Valley” still seems to have legs, so the HBO show should come back along with a nominee last year, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.”
The last spot could go a few different ways. Golden Globe winner for Best Comedy Series and Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy “Mozart in the Jungle” could make it in, especially after Amazon proved extremely successful with “Transparent.” However, until the Globe win I didn’t hear much buzz about the show. So I don’t think it will make it in too easily. Former perennial nominee “The Big Bang Theory” could make it back in after its 200th episode this year. Then there’s “Black-ish,” which had Anthony Anderson nominated last year and “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” the little CW show that could, which won a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice for it’s lead actress. However, I’m going to go with Fox’s “The Last Man on Earth.” It had a great year last year with four big nominations for both writing and directing, as well as lead actor and editing. It feels like a series nomination is the next natural step. Then again, that’s what I thought with “New Girl” and we know how that ended up.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
1. Veep
2. Modern Family
3. Transparent
4. Master of None
5. Silicon Valley
6. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
7. The Last Man on Earth
8. The Big Bang Theory
9. Mozart in the Jungle
10. Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Check back here for more 2016 Emmy Predictions!
Hey, I'm Karl, founder and film critic at Smash Cut. I started Smash Cut in 2014 to share my love of movies and give a perspective I haven't yet seen represented. I'm also an editor at The New York Times, a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, and a member of the Online Film Critics Society.
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