Category: Emmys

It’s no secret that Game of Thrones is the biggest and most popular series on television right now. You can’t go to any water cooler in any given office in the United States without hearing something about what happened the previous night on the show. However, will that buzz translate to Emmys?

Season Four of Game of Thrones has been arguably their best season to date. Although much of the buzz can be attributed to the various shocking events that have taken place, it’s also been at the top of its craft in terms of writing, directing, and production. It’s also helpful that actors like Emmy-winner Peter Dinklage, Emilia Clarke, Lena Headey, Charles Dance, Sophie Turner, Maisie Williams, and Alfie Allen have been at the top of their game (pun intended). Despite losing out to Mad Men in season 1, Homeland in season 2, and Breaking Bad in season 3, the show has been consistently nominated in all categories thus far. They have even accumulated 10 Emmys in total. This season, being their biggest and buzziest is bound to be their most successful at the awards as well.

So, to best understand their standings at the Emmys I am going to go through each category and talk about their chances at nominations and wins.

Creative Awards
This one is going to be a quick one. The show has done well in the creative awards every year. Last year they won two awards (Prosthetic Make-up and Visual Effects) and won six for season two. This year, which was their most extravagant by far, is looking to pick up the key nominations in Picture Editing, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Prosthetic and Non-Prosthetic Make-up, Sound Editing and Mixing, and Art Direction. The question for these categories becomes whether or not it can sneak into Music Composition, especially with the soaring season finale “The Children.”

Guest Actor/Actress
Pedro Pascal charmed fans with his performance as Oberyn Martell, the passionate, great warrior, that makes his way to King’s Landing this season. He arguably became one of the most popular characters this season and offered Pedro Pascal the opportunity to give one of the most memorable performances this season. I think he’s solidly in Guest Actor in a Drama Series, although I think a win is out of the question (he submitted the episode “Mockingbird”) he should still add to the show’s nominations total. As will Diana Rigg for her role as Lady Olenna Tyrell. Although she doesn’t have the fireworks other characters have, she is a veteran actress who was previously nominated for this role.

Directing
The series submitted three episodes for consideration: “The Watchers on the Wall”, “The Laws of Gods and Men”, and “The Children.” Although they haven’t been nominated in this category since their first season, I think that this is probably the best time for them to sneak back into the race. Of the three episodes, “The Watchers on the Wall” is the biggest director showcase and their most likely candidate. However, I have it just slipping in.

Writing
The show had the great strategy last year of just submitting one episode for writing and they did the same this year with the season finale “The Children.” That strategy coupled with the fact they the finale is the best they’ve had so far, I think they have a good chance at another nomination this year.

Actors
With no clear lead, all the actors on the show submit in the supporting races. Their one clear lock is Peter Dinklage, who won an Emmy for the first season of the show. He is also a strong threat to win if he submits “The Laws of Gods and Men.” All he has to do is take down Aaron Paul. The next best contender is Emilia Clarke (Daenerys). She received a nomination last year and despite her lack of a strong episode to submit, she seems relatively safe. However, the wild card is Lena Headey (Cersei Lannister). She has had her best season on the show so far and if voters are paying attention, they will give her a well deserved Emmy nomination. Right now, I have her just missing out. Another wild card, wilder than Cersei, is Nikolaj Coster-Waldau. Many Emmy pundits predicted him to be nominated last year, but he was snubbed. Voters could try to make up for that snub with a nomination this year a la Emilia Clarke. I don’t even have him in my predictions, but if he’s nominated I will just bow down.

Drama Series
The show is a virtual lock for the top prize. However, it’s going to be an uphill climb for a win. It’s just the nature of the series. A fantasy, medieval series from the beginning was never going to fare well with the awards. Is there a small sliver of a chance that they do pull off an upset? Yes, but there are too many alternatives this year for them to be too big of a threat.

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Refreshingly, Lead Actress in a Drama Series is the more competitive of the lead categories on the drama side. However, there doesn’t seem to be much movement from last year’s group. Reigning champ Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder”) is sure to return along with last year’s near winner Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”).

After them, Robin Wright (“House of Cards”) will return and could actually win it all this year if she selects the right episode (she’s had a problem with that thus far). “Chapter 49” shows Claire at her most vulnerable and gives her some incredible scenes and a great closing speech that could put her over the edge.

As the “Homeland” Renaissance continues, Claire Danes is assured to return especially after the strong year they had at the Emmys last year.

After these four, the category gets a little more confusing. Tatiana Maslany (“Orphan Black”) finally reaped a nomination last year after two years of being snubbed. I could see her being a one-and-done nominee, but I can also see a scenario where she becomes a perennial nominee in the category. I think she still has some residual support left that’ll help her sneak in, but there is a chance she is snubbed.

The last spot is a little trickier. The smart money would be on two-time winner in this category Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”) returning, especially since this is the show’s last year. However, she has been on shaky ground in this category. She was nominated three years in a row (winning once), then snubbed, then returned and won, and then was snubbed again. Will she really return for an average season of the show? I don’t think she will.
Most people would predict Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey”) to return for the show’s final season, but I think that Keri Russell (“The Americans”) will finally get an overdue nomination in the category after three years of snubs. The show was finally nominated in its first major category last year (in writing), which could open the floodgates for more above the line categories (a la “Friday Night Lights”).

Dockery, Kerry Washington (“Scandal”), and Eva Green (“Penny Dreadful”) (mostly wishful thinking) have chances to return as well.

Check out our 2016 Emmy Predictions!

Rankings

1. Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
2. Taraji P Henson, “Empire”
3. Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
4. Claire Danes, “Homeland”
5. Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”
6. Keri Russell, “The Americans”
   ——-
7. Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
8. Eva Green, “Penny Dreadful”
9. Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”
10. Kerry Washington, “Scandal”

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series is looking to have a major overhaul with an influx of contenders

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series is really the category that I feel is going to be the hardest to predict. There are easily 11 legitimate competitors for the six spots. It’s a wide open category with three of last year’s nominees not eligible this year. I really can’t see a way that there aren’t 7 or 8 nominees in this category with the new rules.

However, there are a few sure-fire candidates. Last year’s winner and four-time consecutive winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) is sure to return, especially with the shows win in Comedy Series last year. Also assured to return is Amy Schumer (“Inside Amy Schumer”) who probably came thisclose to winning last year. It’s not surprising though considering the Academy tends to be a year or so behind the buzz. That’s why it took Tatiana Malany two years to break through in the Lead Actress in a Drama Series category. So, Schumer’s buzz could come to a head this year and get her the win.

I’m also pretty confident that Ellie Kemper (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”) will have a much easier time getting in this year after being snubbed last year despite the show nabbing four acting nominations.

The last three spots I can see being any arrangement of seven different contenders. However, with “Ghostbusters” and “The Boss” mixed with the fact that it’s the show’s last season, I think Melissa McCarthy (“Mike & Molly”) will probably get a goodbye hug. She seems to be the nominee that they throw in whenever there’s an open spot.

After her, I think that there is going to be some new faces in the category. Rachel Bloom (“Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”), who won the Globe and Critics Choice earlier this year (not that it matters), has some momentum behind her.

Conventional wisdom (or a sane person) would say that Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”) would get the nomination. However, I really think that “Black-ish” is going to surprise with a surge of nominations this year. That’s why I think Tracee Ellis Ross is going to make it in over Tomlin, Constance Wu (“Fresh Off the Boat”), and Anna Faris (“Mom”). Though, they could all easily make it in.

Check out all our 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”
Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”***
Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly”
Tracee Ellis Ross, “Black-Ish”
Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”

***Predicted Winner

Lead Actor in a Drama Series is the most unpredictable category at the Emmys this year

Lead Actor in a Drama Series is a wide open category. Two of last year’s nominees, Jon Hamm (Mad Men) and Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), are ineligible this year and only two seem like locks.

The two actors that are locks for nominations are also the ones that are most competitive for the win. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) seems to have just missed the win every year he was nominated. But with rivals Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm out of the way, he has a clear path to finally nabbing the prize. Plus, his portrayal is so acclaimed that it’s just a matter of time before he wins.

However, the one person he has to get through is Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul). Not only has he receive acclaim for his performance, the series is also riding on a strong wave of support. But they have to watch out for one other actor.

Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) is safe to reap a nomination. His series going to come into the Emmys hot and he is coming off nominations at SAG, the Globes, and a win at Critics’ Choice. More than that though, I think he could actually upset the two frontrunners for a win.

After them the category is blow wide open. Though Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) and Kyle Chandler (Bloodline) are both eligible, their shows haven’t made a hit with audiences or the Emmys. While I think that is going to affect Schreiber, Chandler should still be able to get in on name alone.

That leaves two open spots. Assuming it goes the Friday Night Lights route, I think Matthew Rhys (The Americans) gets in pretty easily. He has been receiving strong and consistent reviews and is an industry favorite. Plus, with his show finally breaking through last year in writing, I think it’s finally time for him to grab a nomination.

The last spot is going to be pretty tricky. A lot of people are predicting Emmy favorites Paul Giamatti and Damien Lewis from Billions. But is anyone really watching that show? While I understand they could get in on name alone, there just doesn’t feel like there’s any support behind them or the show.

A show that I can see being embraced by the Emmys is Hulu’s The Path and its two leads: Aaron Paul and Hugh Dancy. I think Paul is more likely to be nominated, but it all depends on how the Emmys react to the network. If they don’t go with one of them it’s either going to be Bobby Cannavale (Vinyl) or Wagner Moura (Narcos) or Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey). Yes, the race is that open. I’m sticking with Paul for the last spot but this is the most unpredictable category of the year.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Aaron Paul (The Path)
Matthew Rhys (The American)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)***

***Predicted winner

Newcomers will define the Emmy race for Comedy Series

Comedy Series feels a lot more open than it actually is. While two of last year’s nominees, Louie and Parks and Recreation, are ineligible this year, the other five are returning. However, I think there is room for a lot of movement in the category especially with this new golden age of comedy we seem to be in.

Last year’s winner Veep is locked to return. Despite a slow start to the season, it eventually picked back up to its peak quality. However, a win might be a bit harder to come by. When a show wins later in its run, it’s rare to see it go on a winning streak like shows that win in their first season. For example, Sex and the City and the city won for season three but didn’t win again. Will & Grace won for season two and never won again. Everybody Loves Raymond won for their seventh season, lost the next season, then won for their final season. The Office won for season two, but never won again. Seinfeld won for season four and never won again.

Compare that to Fraiser, 30 Rock, and Modern Family, which all won for their first seasons and went on to go on a winning streak. The first and last of which hold the record for the most wins in this category.

Now, I may be looking too far into this, but I really think there is a pattern here. The reason series win so late in their runs is because they deserve a win for that specific season. Sometimes there’s also the sense that the Emmys already gave them their due after they had to wait.

If Veep doesn’t take it, then I think it’s going to be one of two series that does. The first is Black-ish as I mentioned in my predictions for Drama Series, it’s risky to predict a series that hasn’t been nominated before this high on your predictions, but I think Black-ish is in a unique position. First, it’s a series that features an all minority cast. In this year where diversity has been at the top of discussion that matters. Second, it has had two extremely strong and timely episodes that will be rallied behind in the both the writing and directing categories. Third, with Big Bang Theory snubbed last year multi-cam shows no longer have a representative in the category, blackish could fill that spot. Lastly, Anthony Anderson received a nomination last year. That means that the show is in discussion.

I think in writing this I’ve convinced myself that they could actually win. Well, let’s move on.

The second series that I think could beat Veep is Transparent. After a huge nominations haul last year and two major wins for lead actor and writing, they are in the perfect spot to launch into a series win. However, nominations will be very telling here. If they maintain or gain nominations, then I think they are going to be a threat. If they drop anywhere they should have easily gotten in, then they’re vulnerable.

The next four contenders all have strengths and vulnerabilities. Five-time (bleh) winner Modern Family seems to have one more year in them. After being dropped down to only three major nominations, the show has lost a lot of steam. I really think that there could be a huge shock and they are snubbed. Some pundits are even predicting that already. However, I think they will have one last year left before finally bowing out of the race.

After them a few streaming shows will be competing with an HBO show for the last few spots. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt had a huge nominations year last year, but after its premiere this year it feels like all the buzz fell away. Same goes for Master of None. However, I think both should be safely in because of the names behind them and, for the latter specifically, the strong critical acclaim.

That leaves one last spot. Silicon Valley has proven to be a consistent contender. Despite their success, they haven’t been able to break into the acting races, which is often a prerequisite to winning a series award. They are the most vulnerable in my opinion including Unbreakable.

But I think Hulu’s Casual is in a great place to sneak in. It has a strong name behind it in Jason Reitman and has received strong reviews. Its biggest drawback is that it’s on an untested network. While that was the argument we used for Amazon last year, the series didn’t have the same cultural impact that Transparent had.

If I had to pick, my head would go with Silicon Valley for the last spot. But my gut is telling me that Casual is going to. For the sake of a gutsy pick I’m going with the latter.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

Black-ish***
Casual
Master of None
Modern Family
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

***Predicted winner

Five of last year’s Emmys’ Drama Series nominees should make it back in. Which one will be left off?

Drama Series is a category that probably won’t have a lot of movement from last year’s line-up. Of course, Mad Men is out of the way which opens up a spot, but barring a huge shock, at least five other nominees from last year should return.

Starting from the top, last year’s winner Game of Thrones is guaranteed to come back following a critically-acclaimed season. A win is also a strong possibility already. There isn’t a single contender that will have a rallying effect similar to the way that Game of Thrones had one last year when Breaking Bad left the race. However, the closest contender is looking to be Better Call Saul.

While Saul doesn’t have the heat that the original series had, it certainly has the critical support behind it. I can see the series going one of two ways. The first option is that it explodes with nominations picking up acting nods (likely in supporting actress, supporting actor, and guest actor) and breaking into the directing race. The other direction is that it receives generally the same nominations as last year and possibly dropping out of writing. If it goes the first route then they are in contention for the win. If it goes that latter, then there chances diminish.

After Saul, the most likely contender is Mr. Robot. I know it’s risky to predict a new show this high on the list. Sometimes it pans out like Homeland and sometimes it doesn’t like [insert show here]. However, the show has kept in the conversation all year with their wins at Critics’ Choice and the Globes. On top of that, the second season has been airing during voting, which renewed the conversation around the show. They’re looking to nab several nominations because of their smart submissions (they only submitted one episode for writing and directing) and cast (Malek and Slater have good chances in their categories). I’m not going to predict them for the win, but after Homeland’s surprise win for their first season there is a new sense that a hot new show is a threat.

Lastly, I think Homeland is pretty soundly in the running. I don’t think they’ll win, but there has been enough critical heft behind the show for it to reap another nomination.

After the top four, the next three become a bit murky. I can see all three easily getting back in, but I can also see any of the three dropping out. The least likely to go in my opinion is Downton Abbey. Despite slowly losing nominations, they’ve consistently been nominated for Drama Series and I doubt they will be dropped in their final season.

If you asked my a few months ago whether House of Cards was going to be nominated, I’d go as far as telling you that I think it could actually win. However, the buzz has completely gone away. Their one saving grace is that despite being dropped from both the writing and directing categories, they still hauled in a healthy number of nominations and two wins last year. Both of which were surprises.

The one show from last year’s line-up that I’m not as confident in saying will come back is Orange is the New Black. After a strong showing two years ago on the comedy side, last year they were cut down to three nominations. Though they did win in supporting actress, Uzo Aduba is such a popular actor that no one should have been surprised by her win. Looking at the possible trajectories, I can’t really see many that includes it in the line-up.

So let’s say Orange misses. Who replaces them?

Some pundits are betting on perennially ignored The Americans to finally make it in after getting a writing nomination last year. However, I think it may a be a bit too early in their rise to get a Drama Series nomination. Assuming they follow the Friday Night Lights trajectory, they should get acting nominations this year before finally getting a series nominations. That’s option one.

Option two is a more left field choice. WGN’s Underground has been critically lauded and is going to get a strong campaign behind it.

Lastly, Empire could make it in this year after being generally ignored last year save for a nomination for Taraji P. Henson. However, the Emmys are often a year behind so that buzz from the show last year may finally push it over the edge.

So, who do I think it will be? I think The Americans will do it. It’s between them and Orange. However, the Emmys rarely go to plan, which is why I think the latter missing is more likely than getting a nearly identical line-up to last year.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones**
Homeland
House of Cards
Mr. Robot

**Predicted winner

This year, Limited Series is a surprisingly competitive category this year. There are feasibly nine legitimate competitors for the five slots. At the top of the list is FX’s “The People vs. O.J. Simpson”. They are going to feasibly be the nominations leader with multiple nominations in each category and it has the cultural clout that you don’t often get with a limited series.

Right behind them is the early frontrunner and last year’s winner, “Fargo”. It surpassed reviews from last year as well as buzz. I can see them going toe to toe with “The People vs. O.J. Simpson” in almost every category. It’s going to be one of the closest races on Emmy night.

Closely following the two frontrunners is “American Crime”. It had a great year last year including a win for Regina King, who is certain to return. However, the one thing against it is that it doesn’t have nearly as much buzz as the first two series I mentioned. It’s going to have to cover a lot of ground to overcome that.

The above three series are pretty much locks. However, these last two spots are going to be a fight. It can be a combination of six shows that are all in contention. “Roots”, which is a reimagining of the 1977 miniseries that famously was nominated 37 Emmys, could go one of three ways: it is nominated only for Best Limited Series and a few other categories, it is nominated in several categories except for Best Limited Series, it is a nomination juggernaut.

Right now, I am leaning towards the first option. I don’t think it’s going to be a huge factor in nominations, but it is going to get a few that will justify a series nomination. I can also see it easily missing.

Then there’s the question of the ever confusingly nominated “American Horror Story: Hotel”. The show has been consistently nominated since inception, but never seems to have caught on with wins. The “Hotel” season was probably the least lauded, but last year they hit a high in nominations. Sadly, I can’t see it not being nominated, but it could be bumped out because of the crowded year.

1. “The People vs. O.J. Simpson”
2. “Fargo”
3. “American Crime”
4. “Roots”
5. “American Horror Story: Hotel”
   ———————–
6. “The Night Manager”
7. “Show Me A Hero”
8. “Flesh and Bone”
9. “11.22.63”
10. “True Detective”