Category: Oscars

2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Best Actress is one of the most competitive categories at the 2019 Oscars as Glenn Close hopes to finally seal the deal.

Best Actress, unlike its Best Actor counterpart, is a little bit more clear in terms of who the top contenders are. And many of them follow Oscar history — young ingenues, overlooked veterans. However, it’s a long list of contenders. Here are our predictions for Best Actress at the 2019 Oscars.

Current Rankings

Glenn Close
The Wife

Olivia Coleman
The Favourite

Lady Gaga
A Star is Born

Melissa McCarthy
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Yalitza Aparicio
Roma

Check out all our 2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress

The Frontrunners

Glenn Close, The Wife

On her 7th career nomination, Glenn Close should FINALLY win her much deserved Oscar for The Wife. The overdue veteran narrative is always a strong one and Close is the epitome of one. The one knock against her is that her film The Wife is not widely seen. Still, her narrative should be strong enough for a win.

Olivia Coleman, The Favourite

Playing a queen often wins you an Oscar — Helen Mirren won for The Queen and Judi Dench won for Shakespeare in Love. However, Olivia Coleman’s performance as Queen Anne in Yorgos Lanthimos’ wonderfully weird The Favourite is not your typical performance.

However, after winning the Globe and giving an endearing speech her stock has certainly risen. If it wasn’t for Close, she’d be the clear… favorite.

Lady Gaga could receive her first Oscar nomination in Best Actress for A Star is Born.

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Although Cher and Barbara Streisand both won Oscars after successful careers as musicians — this video explains how Cher pulled off her win for Moonstruck — Lady Gaga has an uphill climb for her performance in A Star is Born.

After shockingly losing the Golden Globe to Glenn Close (see above), it’s clear that she’s not going to be as much of a force as we thought. Maybe her public persona as a pop star is hurting her. Either way, she’s definitely winning an Oscar this year for co-writing “Shallow”.

Dark Horse

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Alfonso Cuarón’s magnum opus Roma — in a career full of them including my personal favorite Children of Men — is going to be one of the rare foreign language films to break through in major categories. Despite that, the film’s lead Yalitza Aparicio is going to have a harder time making it into the category.

Foreign language performances rarely make it into the acting categories. And to make it even harder, she doesn’t speak English, which will make connecting with voters difficult — even though it really shouldn’t. That being said, she’s the heart of the film and could be swept along if the movie does well in nominations.

Long Shot

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Can You Ever Forgive Me? might have fallen out of the conversation for Best Picture, but one consistent throughout the season has been Melissa McCarthy in the lead role as Lee Israel.

It’s certainly a change up from her typical comedic performance, which might be to her advantage. However, because of the film’s waning buzz and the fact that her co-star Richard E. Grant has been singled out for praise, she’s on the bubble.

September 22, 2018
2022 Oscars: And the Oscar for worst ceremony goes to…

In an effort to make the Oscars cool again, The Academy made the Oscars deeply uncool

Even before the 94th Academy Awards telecast, people were already predicting it to be one of the worst Oscar telecasts in history. Those people were wrong… it was the worst Oscars telecast in history.

As rumors that ABC would pull the plug on the ceremony amid sagging ratings, The Academy tasked telecast producer Will Packer with finding a way to get people interested in the Oscars again. The tactics? Inviting TikTokers to the ceremony, introducing fan-voted categories, and, most egregiously, cutting eight categories from the live telecast in an effort to reduce the show’s running time. Hilariously, the ceremony is one of the longest in the past two decades. All the changes made it feel like the Oscars, an award meant to honor movies, hated movies.

Here’s my breakdown of the best moments, the worst moments, and yes, that moment.

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Highlights

The Speeches

Wow! Who would have thought that the speeches are the best part of an awards show? Who could have come up with such a concept!?

The first speech of the night was from Best Supporting Actress winner Ariana DeBose who won for her portrayal of Anita in West Side Story, a role that made Rita Moreno the first Puerto Rican Oscar winner in history. At the end of her speech, she alluded to being the first openly LGBTQ+ person to win an acting Oscar saying, “I promise you this, there is a place for us.” It was particularly poignant considering Disney, the studio behind the movie, has been embroiled in controversy over Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill.

Later in the night, Jessica Chastain similarly paid homage to the LGBTQ+ community in her speech after winning Best Actress for playing gay icon Tammy Faye in The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Best Supporting Actor winner Troy Kotsur became the first deaf male actor to win an Oscar and the second deaf actor overall after his CODA co-star Marlee Matlin won in 1987. His touching speech gave tribute to the deaf community and the importance of family while last year’s Best Supporting Actress winner Yuh-jung Youn looked on like a proud mom.

Not only do these speeches create moments and make statements, but it also allows the show to have structure. With fewer speeches, the telecast was instead inundated with filler bits and “tributes” that felt nothing more than set dressing for what we really want to see: people winning Oscars.

The Performances (for the most part)

Beyoncé opened the ceremony with a gorgeously composed performance of her nominated song “Be Alive” from King Richard with a group of dancers clad in tennis ball orange dresses live from a Compton tennis court. It felt like it fit naturally in the structure of the show, as did the performances of the other nominated songs (Van Morrison’s “Down to Joy” from Belfast was the only nominee not to be performed).

One performance, however, did not land with me. Read on.

Liza with a Z

It’s a tradition for the Oscars to invite a screen legend to present the Oscar for Best Picture and this year may have been the most legendary. Oscar-winner Liza Minnelli and Oscar nominee Lady “I don’t consider myself an ethical person” Gaga jointly presented in one of the most genuinely touching moments of the ceremony.

When Minnelli had trouble opening the envelope, Lady Gaga whispered “I got you,” to which she replied, “I know.” Queens supporting queens.

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Lowlights

We have to talk about Bruno

In a head-scratching decision, the telecast featured a performance of “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from Encanto. The catch is it wasn’t nominated for Best Original Song. Another song from the movie was nominated. So why perform it? Because it was the most popular song from a movie in 2021. Including it felt strained and uncomfortable, especially with an inserted Megan Thee Stallion that replaced the song’s best part!

Three hosts. No jokes.

Can someone explain to me why Wanda Sykes or Regina Hall couldn’t just host alone? The writing at awards ceremonies is famously terrible, but this Oscars may have just set a new low with an uncomfortable thread about Regina Hall being single to a fully rude seat filler joke aimed at Kirsten Dunst. Sykes and Hall did the best they could with the material they were given. Amy Schumer, on the other hand, made me feel uncomfortable whenever she was on screen. A host is supposed to make you feel safe. Like a captain driving the ship. Instead, I was dreading their appearances.

Montage. Montage. Montage.

The Academy teased several tributes and cast reunions in an effort to pique interest in the ceremony. Those included a James Bond 60th Anniversary montage, a Pulp Fiction, White Men Can’t Jump, Juno, and The Godfather cast reunions. And one too many montages. The problem is that these packages felt, like the performance on “Bruno,” awkwardly muscled into a ceremony that already lacked focus.

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The downright absurd

No Runtime to Die

ABC mandated that the Oscars stay within their allotted three-hour time slot. The Academy’s solution? Cut eight categories from the main broadcast. The outcome? A ceremony longer than last year’s. What exactly was the point of cutting those categories if they were just going to fill the time with unnecessary bits, performances, and montages?

Twitter’s fan vote went to who?

In another attempt to pander to young people, The Academy instituted two fan-voted categories: Oscars Cheer Moment and Fan Favorite Movie. What they quickly learned is that Twitter is the pit of fan culture hell. Zack Snyder’s Justice League and Army of the Dead won both categories in a presentation that had me taking a bathroom break.

The Slap™️

No comment.

Final Thoughts

I love the Oscars. I loved the Oscars before I even fully formed my love for movies. Watching people being lauded for the craft, to receive validation that we so rarely get, was inspiring to me. This year’s ceremony was not the Oscars that comforted a shy closeted gay boy in New Jersey. Instead of seeing love and hope onstage, I saw greed. It broke my heart. I don’t know what the solution is. I just want my Oscars back.

? What did you think of this year’s ceremony? Let me know!

Have a great week. Go to therapy!
Karl

March 28, 2022
2020 Oscar Predictions — Best Picture
Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars is going to be one of the most competitive races of all time. Here are my predictions.

? Updated December 14, 2019
Likely nomination (listed alphabetically):

1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
On the bubble:

Bombshell
The Farewell
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Little Women
See all my Oscar predictions here.
Full analysis of this category below ?

After a tumultuous festival season, the Oscar race has finally coalesced around a few contenders. Remember, anywhere between five and ten movies could be nominated — a nominee needs to be listed at number one on at least 5% of the ballots — which means we have to look at movies with broad support. Here are the likely nominees:
- THREE SLOTS are going to be taken up by the frontrunners: Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, and Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. Of all the contenders, they are the safest for nominations.
- TWO SLOTS are reserved for the dark horse contenders: Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite. The former won the coveted Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award and the latter is the most critically acclaimed movie of the year and won the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
- ONE SLOT is taken up by the Oscar-bait movie: Sam Mendes’ World War I thriller 1917. What can I say? The Academy can’t resist a war movie.
Since the rule change, we haven’t gotten less than or more than nine nominees. That means there are two or three slots left. Here’s who’s on the bubble:
- The most likely contender to take up a slot is Todd Phillips’ Joker. Joaquin Phoenix is the frontrunner for Best Actor and the movie landed surprise Best Picture and Director nominations at the Globes.
- The next—and probably last—slot is a toss-up between Greta Gerwig’s Little Women and Jay Roach’s Bombshell. The latter shockingly led the SAG nominations (if you exclude the Stunt category) while the former has floundered in the precursors. However, Little Women is better reviewed and Gerwig is coming off a triple nomination for 2017’s Lady Bird. It’ll likely break in her favor.
- If there’s another slot, it will be James Mangold’s Ford v Ferrari and Lulu Wang’s The Farewell.
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There’s still plenty of room for a surprise:
- The Two Popes nabbed surprise Best Motion Picture — Drama nomination at the Globes.
- Knives Out was nominated for three Golden Globes and is a massive box office hit.
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More movies, less problems
Hey! I’m Karl. You can find me on Twitter and Letterboxd. I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic.

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December 14, 2019
2020 Oscars Update #1: Are ‘Us’ or ‘Captain Marvel’ contenders?

This is the state of the 2020 Oscars race. At the end of every month, I’m going to take a look at the state of the Oscars race — breaking down the contenders that made a splash, those that fizzled out, and the ones to come.

317 days until the 2020 Oscars

Oscar contenders that were released this month

By this time last year, three Oscar-nominated films had premiered — Best Picture nominee Black Panther, Best Animated Feature nominee Isle of Dogs, and Best Visual Effects nominee Ready Player One.

Most notably, it was the second year in a row that a best picture nominee was released in the first quarter of the year — Get Out was released in February 2017. And what do Get Out and Black Panther have in common? They were both massive hits at the box office. It makes sense considering it takes a lot for a voter to remember your film almost a year later.

2019 has been notably slow at the box office, but there have been two massive hits that could be in the Oscar conversation. Funny enough, they both have connections to past early Oscar contenders:
(more…)

March 29, 2019
2019 Oscars Wrap-Up: The Oscars are changing and resistant to change
The 2019 Oscars feel like a step back after so much progress in the last couple years, but there are glimmers of hope.

The 2018-2019 awards season has finally come to a close and like every other season, it feels like looking at an empty room after a party. It’s still and lifeless with reminders of what came before — all the decorations and glamour are now worn down, tattered, and strewn on the floor. And all you can do is ask yourself, was it worth it? But in an odd way, this season has felt like an even bigger let down than before.

After two consecutive years of some of the greatest Best Picture fields in recent memories, The Academy backslid to one that still had great progressive picks — Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Roma — mixed with complete regressions — Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book. It seems that unless one of the movies in the former group won that the season would be a letdown.

And we thought it could happen. After one of the most inspired picks in their history with Moonlight, the Oscars went the still unique, but more consensus choice of The Shape of Water — had Get Out and Lady Bird not been in the field this win would have gone over a lot better. There was hope that Roma would finally break the barrier and be the first Foreign Language movie to win Best Picture — and the first released by a streaming platform.

But the majority male and white Academy went with the choice we should have seen all along: Green Book. It is a movie for them, by them, and meant to ease their conscience. Truly, I don’t think Green Book is a cinematic disaster on the level of Bohemian Rhapsody, another Oscar-friendly choice. But it winning 30 years after Driving Miss Daisy won speaks volumes as both movies have a fatal misunderstanding of the themes it’s playing with.

Let’s go back and start with the good.

Diversity wins

Regina King won Best Supporting Actress for Barry Jenkins’ adaptation of James Baldwin’s novel of the same name. Not only was she deserving, If Beale Street Could Talk is a movie that breaks every convention we know about the Academy.

Even though I have large issues with the movie, I do believe Mahershala Ali deserved to win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar from that lineup. His performance is the movie’s saving grace and I’m happy that he, of all people, has two Oscars. He’s also only the second black actor to win more than one competitive Oscar.

While the Oscars love veterans, Olivia Colman — a relative unknown in the US — won for a comedic performance as a queer Queen Ann in Yorgos Lanthimos’ offbeat The Favourite upsetting Glenn Close who extends her record for the most Oscar nominations without a win for any living actor or actress.

Black Panther become the first Marvel movie to win an Oscar — picking up three for Costume Design, Production Design, and Original Score. The winners of those first two categories were the first black women to win non-acting Oscars in 30 years.

Finally, Spike Lee won his first competitive Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay for BlacKkKlansman. Not only that, he received it from Samuel L. Jackson.

The Oscars are making good and interesting choices. But with that, messy traditional biopic Bohemian Rhapsody led the night in wins and overly simplified take on race Green Book won Best Picture.

The dichotomy is apparent.

The Academy is changing, but reminders of its past are still there

It was apparent when last year two of the four acting Oscars went to a film with a similarly shaky take on race and the other two won for playing real-life characters in biopics, but Get Out and Call Me By Your Name won the screenplay categories and The Shape of Water won Best Picture.

The efforts to diversify the Academy by former president Cheryl Boone Isaacs have had a noticeable effect on the nominees and winners. But the old guard of the Academy still has a great effect. This year, however, their effect was seen in the biggest category of the night. That’s why it was so much more visible.

I’m hopeful for the Oscars. So many barriers were broken. A superhero movie — one led by a black cast — was finally nominated for Best Picture. A black-and-white Mexican Netflix movie was nominated for — and nearly won — Best Picture. Three of the four acting winners were people of color and three of the four acting winners played queer characters.

But there is still a long way to go.

And if the Academy (and ABC) could stop obsessing over ratings, which will continue to fall as live tv continues to fall, there are sensible changes they can make to get there. My suggestions:
- Continue to diversify the voting body: Strides have been made to diversify the voting body, but it’s slow going. The Academy has to add more women and people of color to specific branches — directing, producing, and below-the-line, in particular.
- Expand Best Picture to ten nominees (again): More nominees means more chances that big-budget tentpoles, smaller indie movies, and more diverse movie are nominated.
- Shorten the season: Awards season lasts too long. If the Oscars were made earlier, there would be less time for campaigning and glad-handling and more chances for surprises that aren’t just following earlier award bodies.
I love the Oscars because I love film. The way to fix the Oscars is for the Academy to begin loving film again, as well. You do that by adding fresh new voices and giving them more chances to have their work recognized. Let’s relish in the positive, but know that there’s work to be done. If this year has shown us anything, it’s that we, the film lovers, have a voice to change things.
February 25, 2019
2019 Oscars Final Predictions
Despite the mess that is the 2019 Oscars, it is refreshing to have a season that feels unpredictable. Best Picture is still up in the air as is Best Supporting Actress while there is room for upsets in nearly every category. As a lifelong Oscar fan, it’s always more excited to not know who’s going to win come Sunday night.

Here are my predictions in ever category:

Best Picture
- BlacKkKlansman
- Black Panther — SAG
- Bohemian Rhapsody — Globe
- The Favourite
- Green Book — Globe, PGA
- Roma — BAFTA, DGA, Critics Choice
- A Star is Born
- Vice
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Roma or Green Book
Should Win: Roma or Black Panther

I’m taking a big swing in this category. While BlacKkKlansman hasn’t won a major prize, it was nominated every where it needed to be. People love and respect Spike Lee. I think this is going to do really well on the preferential ballot. As long as Roma or Green Book don’t win on a first round then I think this is your Best Picture winner.

Best Actress

Olivia Coleman as Queen Anne in THE FAVOURITE

The nominees:
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Could Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Should Win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite

Glenn Close will finally end her 37-year losing streak when she wins her first Oscar for The Wife. There is the *tiniest* chance that BAFTA winner Olivia Coleman wins for her performance Queen Ann in The Favourite.

Best Actor

Rami Malek in BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY

The nominees:
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: Christian Bale, Vice
Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Although Christian Bale won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards for his performance as Dick Cheney in Vice, I think the real challenger to clear frontrunner Rami Malek is Bradley Cooper. For better or worse, he’s been in the news a lot and if voters want to award A Star is Born outside of Best Original Song, this would be the place to do it.
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January 18, 2019
2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actor at the 2019 Oscars is stacked with industry veterans and newcomers looking for their shot at Oscar glory.

Best Supporting Actor seems to be the most locked acting categories as Mahershala Ali has swept every televised acting prize including the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics Choice. However, I think there is room for an upset.

Here are my current rankings:
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice
Check out all our 2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress

Even though Green Book has been marred by controversy, the one person involved with the film that seems to have gotten out unscathed is Ali. After waltzing through the precursors, he is the clear favorite to win even though he won just two years ago for Moonlight in this category. Plus, it’s a place where voters who liked Green Book can honor it without any of the people involved in the controversies.

However, I think Ali winning so recently is going to hurt his chances more than people think. Whether people don’t vote for him because of it or they vote for someone else thinking he has this on lock, there might be a block of voters who go elsewhere.

Legendary veteran actor Sam Elliott got his first acting nomination in Best Supporting Actor for A Star is Born.

The smart money would be on Sam Elliott for his small, but impactful performance in A Star is Born. After snubs in Best Director and Best Film Editing, the film has been on the ropes for its Best Picture chances — it could go home with just one award for Best Original Song. Voters looking for an above-the-line place to honor could easily go to Elliott. He’s an industry legend on his first nomination and a win could be seen as a lifetime achievement award.

Sam Rockwell’s performance as George W. Bush is an impressive imitation in Viceand Adam Driver is BlacKkKlansman’s sole acting nomination. However, my money for an upset is on Richard E. Grant for Can You Every Forgive Me?.

He swept the critics awards and has launched a homegrown social media campaign that will charm the socks off just about anyone. Although his movie only received two other nominations — Best Actress for Melissa McCarthy and Best Adapted Screenplay — I could see there being passionate support for his performance.

He has the same industry veteran narrative as Elliott and has a good chance at upsetting Ali at the BAFTAs. If he does, the Oscar could be next.
November 16, 2018
2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress has a frontrunner in Regina King, but there’s a good chance she is upset by Rachel Weisz or even Marina de Tavira.

Best Supporting Actress is possibly the trickiest category to predict at the Oscars this year.

Here are my current rankings:
1. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) — Golden Globe, Critics Choice
2. Amy Adams (Vice)
3. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
4. Marina de Tavira (Roma)
5. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Check out all our 2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress

Despite winning nearly every critics’ group prize — including the OFCS, the group I’m a part of — Regina King isn’t the surefire frontrunner she should be for her warm and emotional performance in If Beale Street Could Talk.

That’s because she missed a nomination at the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. For context, that last winner of Best Supporting Actress that didn’t at least get a nomination at the SAG Awards was 2000 when Marcia Gay Harden won the Oscar for Pollack.

You have to go back to 2007 for the last time the winner of this category didn’t also win the Oscar — that year, Ruby Dee won the SAG for American Gangster and Tilda Swinton won the Oscar for Michael Clayton.

King has to worry about that first statistic more than the second since this year’s winner of the SAG Award was Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, who wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars.

Regina King is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress for IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

The fact that one of her fellow Oscar nominees didn’t win will help her. Especially, Amy Adams for her performance as Lynne Cheney in Vice and Rachel Weiss for her performance in The Favourite — both of whom are her biggest competition.

Adams, with her six nominations, could become the living actor with the most Oscar nominations without a win if Glenn Close finally wins on her seventh nomination in Best Actress, as expected. Her overdue narrative can push her to a win. The problem, though, is that her performance isn’t nearly as well received as her other nominations and ultimately takes a backseat to Christian Bale’s transformative performance as Dick Cheney.

Who might really be the favorite is Rachel Weisz. This year has eerily followed the 2015 Best Supporting Actor race where Sylvester Stallone was the frontrunner — winning the Golden Globe and being snubbed by SAG (which is won by non-Oscar nominee Idris Elba) and BAFTA just like King — to lose the Oscar to the BAFTA winner, Mark Rylance.

Whoever wins the BAFTA could be the actual frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. However, watchout for an outside chance that Marina de Tavira turns her surprise nomination into a surprise win if Roma ends up sweeping on Oscar Sunday.
December 7, 2018
2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture
Best Picture this year is as unpredictable as ever with four frontrunners and the possibility of a barrier-breaking superhero movie winning.

Best Picture is an odd category at the 2019 Oscars. What is making this year more unpredictable is almost the opposite of last year. Instead of there being multiple films with valid chances of winning, this year it’s hard to find a movie that doesn’t have something working against it.

Even though we’re less than a month away from the Oscars, Best Picture is still an undecided category — it’s easily the wild card of the night. While there are three clear top contenders, you can make an argument for any of the eight nominees.

The BAFTA Awards might shed some light on what film is the frontrunner, but based on the other precursors, they might just confuse us even more.

Here are my current rankings:
1. Roma — Critics Choice, DGA
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Green Book — Globe, PGA
4. Black Panther — SAG
5. The Favourite
6. A Star is Born
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody — Globe
Check out all our 2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress

It’s rare for a movie to win without at least a nomination in one of these three categories — Film Editing, Directing, and at least one acting category. Only three movies this year got all three — BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, and Vice. If you throw in the SAG Award Best Ensemble stat — only twice has a movie won without a nomination there — then you narrow down to just BlacKkKlansman.

Despite being snubbed for Best Director, Bradley Cooper hopes to win Best Picture for A STAR IS BORN

It would make sense as a winner. Spike Lee — despite being the legend that he is — has never won a competitive Oscar — he’s won a lifetime achievement award. It’s also a social issues movie that tends to do well at the Oscars — and unlike its competitors, it’s an uncontroversial one. Most importantly, BlacKkKlansman hit every precursor award it’s needed.

However, it needs to log a precursor win — WGA is its last shot.

Even though Roma surprisingly missed a Film Editing nod, it is BlacKkKlansman’s biggest competition. Not only did it run the gamut of critics awards, but director Alfonso Cuarón has also swept the director awards and it stunned with a surprise Best Supporting Actress nomination for Marina de Tavira.

Contrary to popular belief, I think Roma is going to do better on the preferential ballot — I explain how Best Picture voting works here — than people think. First of all, the people that love the movie LOVE the movie. Second, I think people that didn’t connect with it still respect the craft, which will land it a lot of 3rd, 4th, and 5th place votes. Its biggest baggage is that it’s a Netflix movie. If it wins, it would be the first movie released on a streaming platform to ever win Best Picture.

BLACK PANTHER could become the first superhero movie to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

Green Book and Black Panther round out the competitors with the best shot to win. Green Book swept the Golden Globes and shockingly won the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Picture. This is notable because it’s the only precursor to also use a preferential ballot. But producers only make up a small part of the Academy and it’s been marred by tons of controversy. Still, it’s the type of light social justice movie that the Oscars tend to go for — think Crash or Driving Miss Daisy.

If Black Panther wins, it’ll break a lot of records. The first superhero movie to win Best Picture, one of the few movies to win without a Film Editing or Director nod, one of the few movies to not be nominated by the DGA to win. The list goes on and on. But I think it has a strong shot at doing well on the preferential ballot. I think the industry admires the movie and it has a strong underdog narrative. It could upset.
September 23, 2018
2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Best Actor is a three-way race between Bradley Cooper, Rami Malek, and Christian Bale at the 2019 Oscars.

Best Actor still doesn’t have a clear single frontrunner. Critics season was ruled by Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, but he missed nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, which doesn’t bode well for his campaign. At the top of the list are three actors with very legitimate shots to win. Here are the contenders:

Check out all our 2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress

The Frontrunners

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Rami Malek’s performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody has been almost universally praised despite the film’s mostly negative reviews and the controversy around its director. However, Bohemian Rhapsody is clearly loved by the industry than critics.

Rami Malek managed to win the Golden Globe over Bradley Cooper — who was in contention for A Star is Born — despite a very close race. However, I’m not sure the Oscar voting body will embrace his performance the same way.

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

The Oscars love to nominate Bradley Cooper — he was nominated three years in a row for Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. However, he’s yet to win. I think that’s going to help him a lot. Especially with Malek going in as a first-time nominee and his other competitor Christian Bale (Vice) already a winner.

The other thing that will help him is the general love for A Star is Born. As the director, screenwriter, and producer, they’ll want to give him some love. And it feels like they might do it in Best Actor.

Rami Malek’s electric performance in Bohemian Rhapsody could land him his first Oscar nomination in Best Actor.

Christian Bale, Vice

On paper, Christian Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney in Vice is one that wins Best Actor. It’s a transformative performance of a real-life figure — in the usual fashion, Bale put on extra weight for the role — which has won everyone from Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) to last year’s winner Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) the Oscar.

However, unlike those two actors, Bale is playing a villain and an incredibly unlikeable figure. Granted, the Adam McKay film tries to portray Cheney in a negative light. There’s also the issue of Bale being a relatively recent winner and lacking the narrative for a second win.

On the Bubble

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Viggo Mortensen would have had the perfect overlooked veteran narrative — like Glenn Close in Best Actress — to win him the Oscar for Green Book. However, there are two things preventing him. First, the movie is divisive, particularly about his character. Second, Mortensen has made some… controversial comments.

The movie’s popularity and industry goodwill will push him to a nomination, but a win is off the table.

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

BlacKkKlansman has been one of the few consistencies throughout awards season, so it’s only right that its lead actor is nominated. I was skeptical of John David Washington’s — son of Denzel — chances despite his Golden Globe nomination — there are effectively 10 slots at the Globes. Then he got a SAG nomination. I think that sealed it for him.

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Ethan Hawke essentially ruled the critics’ awards for his performance in First Reformed. However, his snub at the Globes and SAG along with the movie’s lack of buzz — even a screenplay nomination seems out of reach — are going to make it hard for him to get a nomination.

That being said, there’s still a chance. The Academy might like the movie more than the guilds and Globes and A24 has proven itself an award juggernaut.

Other Contenders

Ryan Gosling, First Man

First Man has pretty much fallen out of the awards conversation — except for Claire Foy in Best Supporting Actress. However, Ryan Gosling still has an inkling of a shot for his portrayal of Neil Armstrong.

Though it’s a quiet performance — the Academy tends to like his louder performances like Half Nelson and La La Land — it’s certainly impactful. If First Man has a resurgence he can slip in.

Ryan Gosling could receive his third Best Actor nomination for First Man.

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Willem Dafoe got thisclose to winning his first Oscar for The Florida Project but ultimately lost to Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. And while on paper his performance as Vincent Van Gogh seems like an Oscar-friendly role, the movie is definitely artsier than your typical biopic.

Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun

Allegedly, The Old Man & the Gun is screen legend Robert Redford’s final film performance. We’ll see if that holds. However, that could push him to a farewell nomination.

Long Shots

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

John Cho, Searching

John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

September 18, 2018
2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep, and Saoirse Ronan lead the packed field for Best Actress

Best Actress started out as one of the most competitive categories at the Oscars this year, but quickly it looks like we’ve found our five nominees. Of all the categories this year, this is the one I’m most confident in predicting — at least the nominations. As for the winner, it’s going to be one of the hardest to predict. Especially considering that of the five expected nominees four of them appear in a Best Picture frontrunner. A feat that hasn’t happened since 2013 and gets even rarer the further you go back. If it does indeed happen, it would be a great way to cap off a year that has seen the most support for female empowerment in recent memory.

Still, the Academy is the Academy and that means that the winner of this category is going to most likely be a young, up and coming actress. That bodes well for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), whose performance in Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut has earned her wide acclaim and won her several critic’s awards along the way. It also doesn’t hurt that her film is one of the most acclaimed of the year and is looking more and more like a viable candidate to win Best Picture. However, it’s not your typical Oscar role. It isn’t the watershed performance that Brie Larson or Jennifer Lawrence won for nor the towering one of Meryl Streep or Sandra Bullock. But what she does have going for her is momentum. Between her and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) the other young and up and coming actress in contention, Ronan is the one that seems to deserve it more at this point in her career. At just 23, she’s looking at her third nomination, is one of the most respected actresses of her age range, and feels overdue despite her young age. If I had to pick a definitive frontrunner, it is her.

But there are also other performances by veterans that in any other year would beget a win. The most likely of those would be Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water). Despite a silent performance and unconventional film, especially for the Oscars, she quickly emerged as a frontrunner early in the season. And it’s not surprising. Though I was more tepid on the film than most, I was enamored by her performance. It’s easily the most overtly emotional of the contenders. However, it does seem a bit too far outside the Academy’s taste to actually win. Though with the changing demographics, who knows what their taste actually is. What she does have going for her is that she hasn’t won like the two other veterans in the category.

Anyone who has seen Steven Spielberg’s latest film agrees on one thing. Meryl Streep (The Post) delivers one of the best performances of her career. While I can’t speak to that yet, from what I know about the role, it’s the kind of towering performance that often wins in this category. Plus, it’s a film that empowers its female protagonist, which will certainly play well in our current climate. However, there are a few things that will get in the way of another Oscar on her mantle. First, and probably most importantly, she won in 2011 for The Iron Lady. Though there have been cases with less time between wins, it’s pretty rare to win another trophy so close to another. It usually takes the perfect conditions to win again. In the case of Hillary Swank’s win for Million Dollar Baby, which came just 5 years after her win for Boys Don’t Cry, she didn’t have much feasible competition and her film was a late-breaking juggernaut. The same goes for Jodie Foster. I don’t think Streep has the right conditions to win, plus there are certainly other alternatives to go with. Especially Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

Like Streep, her role is about female empowerment and the movie gives her the room to explore that in a larger than life way. If there is a towering performance this year, it’s this one. However, the film has received significant backlash recently, which has diminished the acclaim it received initially. Unless there is a backlash to the backlash, I don’t see an easy path to a win.

Though I feel pretty confident that these five women are going to be the Best Actress nominees this year. There is always room for a spoiler to surprise in the category. The most vulnerable actress in a contention is probably Robbie, whose film is the most polarizing of the field and will have the least nominations on Oscar nominations morning. If she is pushed out, then Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game) is most likely to take her spot. She’s an Oscar favorite, landed a Globe nomination (Robbie and Ronan competed in the comedy category), and appears in a film that has received critical acclaim. However, there’s always room for another respected industry veteran like Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) or out of left field choice like Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) to surprise.

Check out all our 2018 Oscar Predictions!

Current Predictions (1/2/18):

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Other Contenders:

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman
Diane Kruger, In the Fade
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

September 6, 2017
2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Best Actor has quickly become one of the hardest categories to predict at the Oscars with several contenders and no clear frontrunner. Though, it looks like Timothée Chalamet or Gary Oldman could rise to the top.

If there’s a category without a frontrunner, it’s Best Actor. Early in the season, Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) seemed to be a lock to win the category. However, as critics prizes started rolling out, it became clear that he wasn’t going to be a critics darling like some past winners. But that’s not always a requirement. Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Redmayne basically didn’t win anything until the major awards. It’s hard to picture Oldman winning without at least some critical support. Although, part of the reason he became a frontrunner was because the role is classic Oscar bait — grandstanding speeches, a revered historical figure. That might give room for a less conventional Oscar performance by Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) to sneak in. Unlike Oldman, Chalamet has been the consensus critical pick.

Chalamet is arguably the breakout star of 2017, but the Oscars aren’t kind to younger actors in Best Actor. At just the age of 21, he’d be the youngest nominee in the category since 1939. The most recent nominee to be in his 20s was Heath Ledger who was 25 when he was nominated for Brokeback Mountain. Before that, Adrian Brody was 29 when he won for The Pianist, the youngest winner in this category. His age is going to be his biggest hurdle to a win.

There are a few veterans in contention as well. Any of combination of them could be nominated. As of right now, I think the safest bet would be Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread). The movie, which was arguably the last major contender to premiere, was even higher profile than most of his films because it is supposedly his final film performance. I think it’ll be hard for the Academy to pass up nominating him for that fact alone. It only makes it easier that he gives yet another winning performance. However, he missed out on a Screen Actors Guild nomination to Denzel Washington (Roman Israel, Esq.) depending on how you look at it, but it’s not uncommon for one nominee from that ceremony to drop out of the Oscar shortlist.

Washington still has a chance of being nominated, but he’ll have to contend with Tom Hanks (The Post). Hanks was shockingly snubbed by SAG as well, but The Post also screened for voters later, which could account for that fact. Still, much of the praise for the film lands with Meryl Streep, who is a top contender for Best Actress. However, Hanks has been snubbed for his past three performances — two of them were shocking snubs. I don’t know whether that fact will help or hurt his campaign, but with two strong candidates also on the bubble, I could see him being snubbed once more.

Those final two candidates will appeal to the hipper set of Academy voters — most likely the newest members. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) is perhaps the more surprising of the two. Get Out was always a strong contender in a lot of categories, but Best Actor wasn’t one of them. Still, he surprised with a SAG nomination and could stand as a representative for the ensemble. Plus, one of the most iconic images from this past year in movies has to be him petrified in a leather chair. That will stick with voters. But what has also been having a lot of cultural resonance is James Franco (The Disaster Artist) playing one of the most infamous filmmakers of all time.

Though Best Actor started as one of the less competitive categories this year, it’s quickly evolved to being the most unpredictable. In addition to the 7 contenders I’ve mentioned so far, there are still a few other that have a feasible shot at being nominated. The most likely of which is Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger), who could get a late-breaking push. Right now, it’s a coin flip.

Check out all our 2018 Oscar Predictions!

Current Rankings (1/2/18):

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Other Contenders:
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

September 11, 2017
2018 Oscar Predictions — The Wildest Best Picture Race Ever

The Best Picture race this year is one of the most unpredictable with no clear frontrunner emerging. Though, Get Out is definitely going to put a fight for the title.

Oscar voting begins this week, which means we finally know exactly what the voters might be considering as they cast their ballots. However, Best Picture remains the most murky category. There are still 4 or 5 contenders that have a clear path to winning. This year, more than any, the preferential ballot is going to make it extremely difficult to figure out what film is going to win. Unlike the past couple years, though ending in upsets, we knew generally what the top two films were going to be.

But to quickly refresh, here’s how the preferential ballot works. Instead of voting for their favorite film, voters are asked to rank all nine nominees in order of preference — their first place film should be there favorite and their last place film should be their least favorite. In the first round of voting, each ballot’s first place vote is counted. If no film gets 50% of the first place votes, the film with the least first place votes is eliminated and their second place film becomes their first place vote. So let’s say Darkest Hour received the least first place votes in the first round and is eliminated. If the voter with Darkest Hour in first place had Phantom Thread in second place, then Phantom Thread would get another vote added to its total.

This means that the Best Picture winner will be a film all the voters generally like — a consensus pick. However, with so many frontrunners, voting might last 5 or 6, and even, 7 rounds before coming up with a winner. So, below I break down the four strong contenders for Best Picture and the case for and against each of them winning.

Let’s start with the film that based on precursors looks like a Best Picture winner. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won Best Picture or the Best Picture equivalent at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTAs, received seven nominations including the rare double acting nomination in Supporting Actor, and is on track to win two acting awards. On paper, it seems like the strongest Best Picture contender even without a Best Director nomination, which certainly hurt its chances a lot. However, if any film is going to be hurt by the preferential ballot, it’s Three Billboards. Though it has its fervent fans, it also has its fervent detractors who point to the movie’s more problematic elements. Films like that tend to do well in precursors because they are voted on with a popular vote. However, with as many people ranking the film as their first and second place picks as much as their last pick, any support is essentially cancelled out.

On the other hand, The Shape of Water has both the chance to be helped and hurt by the preferential ballot. A lot of Oscar voters are going to put it towards the top of their ballot and a lot are going to put it towards the bottom. However, I think there’s also going to be a sizable amount of voters that put it in the middle, as well. Industry opinions on the movie range from love to appreciation to confusion. Having the breadth of placements can help if voting goes a lot of rounds, but hurts if it only goes 3 or 4. To win Best Picture this year, a film needs to consistently show up on the top half of ballots and almost no where on the lower parts of ballots.

I think two films are going to do that, which means that they’re most likely our two legitimate Best Picture frontrunners. Get Out is emerging as a popular choice among pundits since it has wide support, is well-viewed by voters and audiences, and a film that it seems everyone generally likes. However, the older sect of the Academy, according to some Oscar experts, have viewed that film as good, but not Best Picture worthy. Whether that means they’re going to rank it low on their ballot isn’t completely certain. That’s why I think that the dark horse contender this year is Dunkirk. Not only is it one of the most well-received movies of the year, it appeals to both the artier crowd and the older Academy voters who appreciate a war epic. Plus, it’s going to be a widely seen movie, which means, even if a voter didn’t see every movie nominated and only rank 5, Dunkirk has a good chance of being one of those 5. There’s a really strong chance that it upsets come Oscar night. However, if it does win, it’ll break a lot of long held beliefs among Oscar pundits. It doesn’t have a screenplay nomination, acting nomination, and it wasn’t nominated at the SAG awards. Those are a lot of statistics that would have fall for it to win. However, we’ve seen those statistics fail more recently. Anything can happen.

Check out all our 2018 Oscar Predictions!

So, who is going to win? At this point, I think this is Get Out’s race to lose. Universal has been putting a lot of weight behind it, it’s beloved by many and liked by most, and it should do well on the preferential ballot. In a time where Moonlight is the reigning Best Picture champ, anything is possible. Get Out may be an improbable winner, but it looks like it will go all the way.

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Dunkirk or The Shape of Water
Should Win: I always think this is a hard question to answer because I could just say my favorite movie of 2017, Call Me By Your Name, but I think Best Picture is a great way to represent the year in movies. In that case, Lady Bird is not only fantastic, it feels like a movie that is in and of our time. The same could be said for Get Out.

September 30, 2017
2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actor typically goes to an overdue industry veteran, which in this case is looking to be Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project.

Best Supporting Actor is a packed category at the Oscars this year and filled with industry favorite actors that all have narratives to break into the race. However, it seems like Willam Dafoe (The Florida Project) is going to be the one to beat. His subtle but heartfelt performance has won over raves from critics that astonish over the fact that he’s only been nominated twice at the Oscars in this category — Platoon and Shadow of the Vampire. And he’s the perfect fit for a winner of this category, which usually goes to a hard-working veteran character actor. He’s the one to beat.

Another veteran character actor in the running is Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Though Frances McDormand is getting a lot of praise for her steely performance, Rockwell has become a standout from the cast. His bigoted cop role is the kind of villain that is often nominated in Best Supporting Actor, but more importantly, his character has an arc. And that’s one of redemption — though, the controversy around that redemption may work against him. Rockwell is well-regarded in the industry and a nomination could be seen as a career achievement award. Plus, his surprise win at the Golden Globes will certainly help raise his profile.

There are two supporting actors from Call Me By Your Name in contention, which is always a difficult call to make. It’s rare to get more than one nomination in an acting category at the Oscars and it hasn’t happened in this category since 1991 when Bugsy got two noms. However, the more likely candidate from Call Me By Your Name is Armie Hammer. He nabbed a Golden Globe nomination and has more screen time than his co-star Michael Stuhlbarg, who has arguably received more acclaim — mostly for his ending monologue — but has less screen time. It is troublesome that neither actor was nominated at the Golden Globes — neither was the cast. I think Hammer has enough buzz to push him through to an Oscar nomination, but the prospects of having both actors nominated is pretty much gone.

Check out our 2018 Oscar Predictions!

Current Predictions:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other Contenders (in alphabetical order):
- Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name
- Ben Mendohlson, Darkest Hour
- Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
- Ray Romano, The Big Sick
December 4, 2017
2018 Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress is probably the most competitive acting category at the Oscars, even though Allison Janney has emerged as the frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars this year is a battle of the TV titans. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), an Emmy winner for Roseanne, and Allison Janney (I, Tonya), an Emmy winner for The West Wing and Mom, have been going head to head all season. Metcalf essentially swept the critics’ awards, but once the televised awards came, Janney started winning. However, I, Tonya has been a divisive movie. The fact that it couldn’t crack Best Picture or Best Orignal Screenplay is evidence of that. On the other hand, Lady Bird is a Best Picture frontrunner, and can even pull off a win.

However, Janney has the more traditional scene-stealing Oscar role in the vein of Mo’nique in Precious or Melissa Leo in The Fighter. Though, Metcalf certainly has winners who have had performances similar to hers — Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. While Janney’s performance is bigger, Metcalf has her moments and comes off more empathetic. I think it’s more of a tossup than people think.

There isn’t much room for an upset, but if there was one it could come from one of two contenders. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) has been the most consistent nominee along with Janney and Metcalf. Though she hasn’t won anything, she would be a way to honor Mudbound, which was certainly popular based on nominations, and she was also nominated for Best Original Song, which gives her added visibility. However, that could also hurt her chances since voters have another category to honor her.

Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) was one of the most surprising nominations in any category. And Phantom Thread overperformed, including nominations in Best Director and Best Picture. She could pull a Marcia Gay Harden when she won Best Supporting Actress for Pollack without any major nominations.

At this point, I’d still give Janney the edge. She won all the right awards, is beloved in the industry, and is campaigning. However, I, Tonya is divisive and her character is truly an antagonist with no redeeming qualities. Even Mo’nique had a redemption scene. Plus, Lady Bird is going to be a popular movie at the Oscars. It’s going to be a lot closer than most people think.

Check out all our 2018 Oscar Predictions!

Current Predictions (2/1/18):
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
4. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
December 13, 2017