Category: Predictions

The Jungle Book has maintained its frontrunner status throughout the season for Best Visual Effects. But we think an upset is brewing.

With incredible and groundbreaking photorealistic effects, The Jungle Book is the clear choice in Best Visual Effects. It would be a similar winner to Life of Pi. However, the biggest issue with it winning is that it the past eight winners of this award had a nomination in at least one other category — the same amount of time the new voting system was in place. The Jungle Book not only doesn’t fit this. It’s the only movie with one nomination. That could leave it open for an upset.

The most likely contender would be Kubo and the Two Strings. After nabbing a surprise nomination, similarly to Ex Machina last year, it could muster up enough support because of the publicity it received. The only issue is — which also separates it from a pulling off an Ex Machina style upset — is that there is a clear frontrunner in the category. The reason Ex Machina upset is because Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant probably split the vote. There really isn’t another film that could draw votes away from The Jungle Book. However, it has a nomination for Best Animated Feature, which fulfills the criteria of having a nomination in another category.

But, of course, there’s the issue of no animated movie winning this category. The only other animated film to be nominated was The Nightmare Before Christmas. But, go big or go home, right? Let’s go with Kubo.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Kubo and the Two String
Could Win: The Jungle Book
Dark Horse: Deepwater Horizon
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Original Screenplay is a tight race between Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) and Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) pulled off an upset at the WGA Awards. However, he is competing in the Adapted Screenplay race, which he should win. That leaves two movies to compete over Best Original Screenplay. From the beginning of the season, Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) was the frontrunner for the Oscar. That was until he lost the Golden Globe to Damien Chazelle (La La Land). While there isn’t exactly a perfect correlation between the two categories, they do often match up. That bodes well for Chazelle. However, one statistic going against him is that it’s been more than 75 years since a musical won a screenplay award. Even Best Picture winner Chicago lost the award. While it’s rare, I think he’s very much in this race. But, I’m going to give Lonergan the thin edge to win. With Casey Affleck on wobbly territory in Best Actor, this will be the only place to award the film, which has its fans.

If there is an upset, it could be Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water) taking the prize. In addition to penning Sicario last year, Sheridan’s newest film just premiered at Sundance, which could give him a higher profile. Plus, lovers of Hell or High Water, which there a lot of, will want to award it somewhere. Its screenplay is easily its strongest aspect. So, if you’re filling out your work’s Oscar ballot, go with Lonergan. But if you’re going big, then Sheridan could be your ticket.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Dark Horse: Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Should Win: Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

La La Land could continue its Oscar sweep in Best Cinematography, but Lion and Arrival have a chance at upsetting.

Best Cinematography seemed like a shut category until Greg Fraiser (Lion) upset frontrunner Linus Sandgren (La La Land) at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards. Even though the group only predicts the Oscar winner about half of the time, it showed that La La Land isn’t infallible. While Sandgren maintains its frontrunner status — he won the BAFTA in this category — he is still the best bet to win. In the last ten years, the winner of the BAFTA repeated at the Oscars seven times. While that isn’t the most solid statistic, it’s enough to pay attention to.

However, the beautiful cinematography in Lion is still a dark horse for the win. There is another possibility as well. Sci-Fi movies tend to do well in this category. Just look at the upsets by Avatar and Inception a few years back. That means that Bradford Young (Arrival) could sneak in. Plus, his work is easily the most epic of the group, which is often the key to winning Best Cinematography. Plus, he is the first black cinematographer to be nominated in this category, which is a great, yet sad that we had to wait this long. Many voters are ticking the boxes off for people of color, so this could give him an edge.

If I had my vote, I’d give it to James Laxton (Moonlight) and his singular cinematography. He not only lights his actors beautifully, the composition of his shots are gorgeous and emotive. Sandgren would be a worthy winner, but Laxton truly deserves this prize.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Could Win: Bradford Young, Arrival
Dark Horse: Greg Fraiser, Lion
Should Win: James Laxton, Moonlight

Best Director looks like a locked up category with Damien Chazelle becoming the youngest winner in history for La La Land.

Best Director is probably the easier of the major categories to predict at the Oscars. Even if Best Picture is a surprise — Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan or Crash over Brokeback Mountain — Best Director always goes the way that we believe it will go. The only year that we had a surprise is when Rob Marshall (Chicago) lost to Roman Polanski (The Pianist). Often, the best indicator for this award is the Directors Guild of America Award. Since 1970, the winner of this award and the winner of the Oscar for Best Director didn’t match up five times. That’s 5 out of 46. That means it’s 90% accurate. So, that means that barring a huge upset, Damien Chazelle (La La Land) is probably going to be the winner. In addition to winning DGA, the Golden Globe, and multiple critics awards, his film has the most nominations of any movie this year and ties the Oscar record. That’s particularly helpful because since switching to a preferential ballot in 2009, the winner of Best Director’s film had the most nominations all but one time. The one time was when Michel Hazanavicius won for The Artist — it had the second most with 10 versus Hugo’s 11. The only way I can seem him losing is because he is young and the Academy prefers its directors more seasoned. If he wins, he would be the youngest winner since 1931. Though, I’m pretty confident there isn’t going to be an upset in this category.

If there was, it would be Barry Jenkins (Moonlight). His film is only second to La La Land in total nominations and is its rival in Best Picture. While he is likely going to win Adapted Screenplay, Moonlight is a director’s movie. With its careful camera work and incredible performances, it would be the most logical place to honor Barry Jenkins. However, without a major award under his belt, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to take down Chazelle.

There is one dark horse contender that I can (unfortunately) see shocking. The parallels to the race in 2002 are quite shocking. Chicago, the last musical to win Best Picture, looked like it was going to have an easy win in Best Picture. Director Rob Marshall won the DGA and was expected to win at the Oscars. Instead, controversial veteran Roman Polanski won in a shocking upset for The Pianist, a World War II movie. Well, if La La Land is Chicago, then what is The Pianist? Well, another World War II movie is nominated and also has a controversial veteran director, Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge). I’m warning you, it could happen.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Dark Horse: Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Chazelle or Jenkins

La La Land seems invincible in Best Picture. But I can see an upset coming from Moonlight or even Hidden Figures.

Since the film premiered at Venice in September, La La Land has been the frontrunner for Best Picture. It really has won everything it needs to win — Golden Globe, BAFTA, the Guilds — and has ratcheted up incredible buzz and box office. Not only that, it has gone above and beyond. It broke the record for the most wins at the Golden Globes, tied the record for most nominations at the Oscars, and if it wins, it will be the highest-grossing Best Picture winner since Slumdog Millionaire. However, I think it isn’t infallible at the Oscar like a lot of people think. You can read my full analysis about it here. In short, though, I think that the backlash that many other pundits are discounting is actually a lot more deep seeded. La La Land is a good movie, a great movie even. However, because of the incredible response from awards, the question of whether or not it’s overrated is becoming legitimate. If all the ingredients mix together properly, I think Moonlight can break its way in.



  But first, let's talk about the other contenders. If we're going off the rule that you need to at least have a nomination for directing and editing — which isn't a perfect rule, but it is certainly strong — then only Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge are viable alternatives. Arrival has two things going against it. First, there is a huge genre bias in Best Picture. Sci-Fi movies have long been ignored and have yet to win in this category. Second, movies with a female lead also have a hard time winning, unfortunately. That coupled with the fact that it missed out in two categories it seemed like a lock in — Visual Effects and Actress for Amy Adams — it looks like it is knocked out of contention. Hacksaw Ridge, on the other hand, has a few things going for it. It's a war picture, which is very popular in this category. It nabbed all the key nominations including one for its lead Andrew Garfield. Lastly, it's going to be popular among the Academy's older and white demographic, which is easily its largest. However, despite receiving a shocking Best Director nomination, I think the Academy is going to be slower to forgive Mel Gibson than we think. Hell or High Water only received four nominations and missed out on director, so it isn't going to be a threat. Especially when the more popular Hacksaw Ridge is pulling votes from its demographic. Fences similarly only has four nominations and is likely to win Supporting Actress and, possibly, Actor. So, I don't think that voters are going to be in a rush to vote for it here. Manchester by the Sea seemed like a contender at the beginning of the season, but after a weak phase 2 campaign and waning support for its most-likely winner, Casey Affleck, it looks like they're going to have to settle for Original Screenplay. That leaves two more contenders. Both Hidden Figures and Lion seem like unlikely Best Picture adversaries, but they both have strong narratives. Lion is awards juggernaut The Weinstein Company's only horse in the race. Despite not having a lot of the markers for a Best Picture winner, Weinstein's narrative of immigration and acceptance is going to play very well in our current political environment. Same goes for Hidden Figures. Led by three black women, the film is diverse, talks about inclusiveness, and won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble. However, what truly makes it a threat is its high box office and broad appeal. Still, the only nominee that I think has a legitmate shot is Moonlight.    If La La Land is the frontrunner, then Moonlight is the runner-up/underdog. As with many other years, the underdog narrative is proven to be a powerful one — The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar, Spotlight vs. The Revenant. There are some films that it seems everyone likes. Moonlight is one of those films. With the intense backlash La La Land is receiving, it's easier to see more voters putting it lower on their ballot. For a refresher, this article explains how voting in Best Picture works. I can see a lot of voters putting Moonlight at number 2 or 3 on their ballots. That's the sweet spot you want to be in. So, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Moonlight upsets and wins. Will that happen? Probably not. Is it a possibility? Definitely. Check out the rest of our 2017 Oscar Predictions! Will Win: Moonlight Could Win: La La Land Dark Horse: Hidden Figures Should Win: Moonlight or La La Land or Arrival or Hidden Figures (it's been a great year for film)  

Emma Stone (La La Land) should easily win Best Actress at the Oscars. However, there are two contenders that could take her down.

Best Actress is looking more and more like it’s going to be going to Emma Stone (La La Land) this year. It would be her first Oscar after being nominated in 2015 for Birdman. It makes sense that she would win now. She’s an industry golden child on the way up, she has a role that allows her to emote, and she’s young. That’s the key in this category, they love awarding young actresses. However, there is one person that I can actually see beating her. Though it’s a long shot, it’s possible.

But let's start at the bottom first. This is a really competitive year for this category, I can make an argument for any one of these women. So, it's hard to pick an order for the likeliness of winning. My choice for the last place is probably going to surprise a lot of you. Natalie Portman (Jackie) seemed to be the only actress who could stand in Stone's way. She even upset her at the Critics Choice Awards. However, the support for both her and her movie have slowly dwindled away. Plus, Jackie is a very divisive movie. It feels like too much art for some people. That also goes for Portman's performance. On top of that, she won an Oscar only seven years ago, which is fresh enough in voters' minds to not think she needs another so soon. [caption id="attachment_9872" align="alignleft" width="400"] Best Actress Nominee Emma Stone in La La Land[/caption] After her would be Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). Although she got in on the strength of her Golden Globes speech, I don't think it will be enough to get her a win. She too recently won and there won't be a rush to reward her. My third place finisher is certainly the dark horse contender as well. Ruth Negga (Loving) gives a really powerful performance in the film. She's a relative newcomer and this is her first nomination. She also plays a real person and is very early in her career. She has all the hallmarks of a winner in this category. However, even further than that, she has two other things going for her. First, Best Actress winners rarely have their film nominated for Best Picture, though she's one of four in this category to have that happen, hers is the only film to not have any major momentum or wins during the season. Lastly, in a year where diversity is the buzz word, she would be another place to show the progress the Academy has made. However, as much as I truly loved her performance, it's my favorite of the year, it's very quiet. Usually, winners in this category are big and bombastic with a lot of emotion. [caption id="attachment_9805" align="alignright" width="400"] Best Actress nominee Ruth Negga in Loving [/caption] The nominee with the best shot at upsetting Stone, though, is Isabelle Huppert (Elle). After shockingly upsetting Portman at the Globes, she moved into the forefront of the conversation. Though she missed out at SAG, which is a prerequisite, there is a history of Globe winners going on to win at the Oscars after missing out on SAG. Plus, her movie was snubbed in Foreign Language film – it didn't make the shortlist – so it's likely that voters that liked that film will want to reward it somehow. The two issues she has are that it is very rare for a foreign language actor to win in any category. Second, the film is very divisive. I think Stone has this sewn up. There's nothing indicating that she will miss out on this award. But, weirder things have happened at the Oscars. If history holds, her winning could signal that La La Land won't win Best Picture. They're just stats though. We'll just have to see. Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions! Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land Could Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle Dark Horse: Ruth Negga, Loving Should Win: Ruth Negga, Loving

The race for Adapted Screenplay is a low-key competitive category. However, I think it’s also prime for an upset. Moonlight has to watch its back.

Best Adapted Screenplay is a seemingly low-key category that is probably going to go the way we expect. However, I actually think it’s among the most competitive of the night. I could make an argument for every nominee.

The clear frontrunner here is Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for Moonlight. In addition to being a Best Picture frontrunner, they also won the BAFTA Scripter Award, which has predicted the winner of this category for the past six years. Because of the possibility of a La La Land sweep, this may be the only category to award director Barry Jenkins for his work. I think that they are the safe frontrunner, but arguments could easily be made for all the other contenders in the category. It’s almost impossible to do a proper ranking.

The nominee that I think is most likely to upset, though, is Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi for Hidden Figures. The movie is a crowd pleaser and popular with the industry and voters, which is especially evident after their SAG Best Ensemble upset. If voters choose to spread the wealth, this is the one category that Hidden Figures is nominated in that they could vote for it. It’s unlikely to win either of its other nominations — Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress. If you’re looking for an upset, it’s this.

Before nominations came out and the season was officially in full swing, it looked like the momentum was going for Eric Heisserer for Arrival. This was, of course, before two bigger contenders came out — Hidden Figures and one I will mention shortly. While the act of adapting the short story The Story of Your Life to this complex sci-fi drama was an incredible feat, its genius might have gone over the heads of the voters the same way the movie might have. However, if voters like Arrival enough, there is certainly a chance that it could upset.

The other nominee I alluded to is Luke Davies for Lion. It looks like Lion is one of those mid-success nominees that skirts by the Oscars with no wins. Think Brooklyn from last year. However, I think it has a strong in this category after winning at the BAFTAs. The only reason I think that it’s less likely to upset than Hidden Figures is because I think it has a chance at upsetting in Cinematography and Supporting Actor, which might make a win in this category less urgent.

The wild card is really August Wilson for Fences. His posthumous nomination is a rarity, plus his name is being constantly thrown around by Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, which is powerful, especially when they’re said during an acceptance speech. However, plays rarely win in this category. Whether it’s because the act of adapting from stage to screen isn’t as impressive, I don’t know, but it’s a strong statistic to overcome.

If I had to put money on it, Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney have this locked up. But there’s also this sneaking suspicion that this is a prime category for an upset. There are a lot of strong nominees. I’m going to say Moonlight takes it. But watch out for Hidden Figures or Lion for the upset.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCarney, Moonlight
Could Win: Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Dark Horse: Luke Davies, Lion
Should Win: Eric Heisserer, Arrival

 

Zootopia is the comfortable frontrunner in this category, however, Kubo and the Two Strings could pull off a surprise upset

While Best Animated Feature sounds like an open and shut category, there is actually room for an upset. But let’s start at the bottom first. I think the only film that has absolutely zero chance of winning The Red Turtle. I simply think it’s a movie that not enough people have seen. Plus, with a few exceptions, movies with large box office hulls and buzz with this category. So, The Red Turtle probably has to settle for a nomination in a competitive year.




After that, every nominee has some path to winning. Following their monster success with Frozen, which won Best Original Song and Best Animated Feature and becoming the highest-grossing movie in history, Disney had a more modest hit with Moana. Though it received stronger critical notices – it outscored Frozen on both Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic – I think it simply got stuck with a more competitive year in animation. However, animated movies with nominations in other categories tend to win, so that gives it an outside shot.

The surprising and unlikely dark horse of this category is My Life As A Zucchini made headlines when it ended up making it to the short list for the Best Foreign Language category. While it didn’t get nominated, that shows that people have watched the movie and are paying attention. I think it could be a surprising twist in the category.

The biggest contender to this year’s frontrunner is Kubo and the Two Strings (check out our review here!). It isn’t the hit that the other contenders in this category are, but it has its rabid fans. Plus, it is the first movie to ever be nominated for both Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects. It is also only the second animated movie to be nominated for the latter category. It also got strong guild support with an unprecedented nomination at the Costume Designers Guild Awards and a win at the Visual Effects Society Awards. I think it might have the support to unseat the frontrunner.

Zootopia (check out our review here!) has been the consistent frontrunner this entire year and took the Producers Guild Award and Golden Globe, which often signals success in this category. Its timely story and insane box office make it a prime candidate in this category. Plus, despite premiering more than a year ago, it feels like its still being talked about. However, it has one startling statistic against it. Only one movie that premiered before May has won this category. That movie was Rango, a notoriously weak year for the category. Whether that is a statistic or a coincidence, I don’t know. But an upset in this category would set a precedent.

Check out all our 2017 Oscar Predictions!

Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Dark Horse: My Life As A Zucchini
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings