Category: Oscars

I don’t like changing my predictions too close to Oscar night. It tends to lead to unnecessary second guessing and almost always leads to no good. However, this year it looks like I’m going to be changing back and forth all the way up to Oscar night. This year is like no other for the Oscars. Never have we seen the precursors and nominations create such a stir among predictions. To properly analyze this category, we have to break it down by the top contenders:

Birdman: Inarritu’s film was the perennial runner up, until it won the SAG award, PGA award, and DGA award in a surprising sweep. No film has ever won all three and not taken Best Picture at the Oscars. It also led in the nominations, which is not a requirement, but never hurts. However, it not only lost the BAFTA award, it only won a single award at the ceremony. BAFTA voters and the Academy have one of the biggest overlaps of all award voting groups, so the lack of support from the Brits is telling.

Boyhood: Linklater’s film was the frontrunner from the beginning of the season. It pretty much romped through the critics awards and took Globes and Critics Choice. However, it took a huge hit when the guild awards came around. It also underperformed, if ever so slightly, in the nomination totals.

At this point, it’s a coin toss. The smart thing to do is put your money on the early frontrunner rather than the late surge of another nominee. However, so many trends will be broken if either film wins. In addition to the reasons above, Birdman would be the first film since Ordinary People won in 1981 to win Best Picture without at least an editing nomination. I also can’t see Birdman winning solely Picture, cinematography, and maybe director. However, if the precursors are any indication, then Boyhood is on rocky footing as well.

I’m landing on Birdman at this point, but expect that to change a few times. Maybe The Grand Budapest Hotel swoops in and shocks everyone.

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Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Whiplash
Should’ve Been Nominated: A Most Violent Year or Nightcrawler, there are tons of other deserving films though

Best Actress is an open and shut category. Julianne Moore (Still Alice) was the early frontrunner, even when it was for a different film. Either way, whether she was in the running for Still Alice or A Map to the Stars, it looked like she would finally win her Oscar. She has everything: a pure Oscar bait role, a performance with fire and gravitas, and veteran status. I will be shocked if she doesn’t win.

However, just for fun, let’s try to figure out who’s in second place. Reese Witherspoon (Wild) was another early frontrunner, who similarly has a bait role, and a performance with fire and gravitas. So, naturally she should be the next in line for the win. However, she just doesn’t have the urgency that Moore has.

I think a contender that a lot of people were underestimating is Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl). Even with the complete Gone Girl snub, I think she had the most unique role of the nominees. It was a showy femme fatale role that the average Oscar voter would love.

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Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Could Win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (off pure difficulty and execution)
Should have been nominated: Anne Dorval, Mommy

This is going to be a hard category to get right. There are three extremely strong contenders that are all Best Picture nominees and all have their own strengths. The first possibility is Birdman. The film won the screenplay award at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. However, the film was ineligible at the Writers Guild Awards. It’s also one of the two frontrunners for Best Picture after surprise wins at the PGA and SAG awards. Then there’s The Grand Budapest Hotel, which is the most “original” of the nominees, which sometimes is enough to win the award. It also surprisingly (for some) led the nominations along with Birdman with 9. Wes Anderson is also arguably overdue for an Oscar win, particularly for this category. Finally, Boyhood rounds out the category as the other Best Picture frontrunner. The screenplay is probably one of the least impressive feats in the film. However, if there is a Boyhood sweep, then this is definitely one of the categories that will be taken along with it. The other two nominees, Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler, are really taking the backseat here. However, if I had to pick a “fourth place” film is would be Nightcrawler.

Right now, I’m going to say that Birdman takes this award. Despite its ineligibility at WGA, it was solidly running through the precursor awards beforehand, and last year’s winner for Best Adapted Screenplay, 12 Years a Slave, was also ineligible at WGA. If voters feel inclined to award Wes Anderson, then he may sneak a win here.

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Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should have been nominated: Enemy

This year, as usual, the Oscar nominations brought us some of the biggest snubs, surprises, and shockers of any award show.

Although we saw Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel lead as expected, films like Gone Girl and Selma were nearly shut out. In the first episode of the Smash Cut Awards Clash podcast. Editor-in-Chief Karl Delossantos breaks down the top 6 categories and talks about the snubs and surprises in each of them.

Check back next week when we talk about the technical races.

Smash Cut Awards Clash (Episode 1): Oscar Nomination Reactions! by Karl Delossantos on Mixcloud

The Oscar nominations were announced in their entirety in Hollywood this morning. Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel led with 9 nominations each. Check out the nominee below:

BEST PICTURE
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, “Two Days One Night”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Laura Dern, “Wild”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“Foxcatcher”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Nightcrawler”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“American Sniper”
“The Imitation Game”
“Inherent Vice”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Ida”
“Mr. Turner”
“Unbroken”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Inherent Vice”
“Into the Woods”
“Maleficent”
“Mr. Turner”

BEST EDITING
“American Sniper”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Whiplash”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
“Foxcatcher”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Into the Woods”
“Mr. Turner”

BEST SCORE
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Mr. Turner”
“The Theory of Everything”

BEST SONG
“Everything Is Awesome from “The Lego Movie”
“Glory” from “Selma”
“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
“I’m Not Going to Miss You” from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”

BEST SOUND EDITING
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”

BEST SOUND MIXING
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”
“Whiplash”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Captain America: The Winter Soldier”
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
“Interstellar”
“X-Men: Days of Future Past”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Big Hero 6”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“Song of the Sea”
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Citizenfour”
“Finding Vivian Maier”
“Last Days in Vietnam”
“The Salt of the Earth”
“Virunga”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Ida”
“Leviathan”
“Tangerines”
“Timbuktu”
“Wild Tales”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“The Bigger Picture”
“The Dam Keeper”
“Feast”
“Me and My Moulton”
“A Single Life”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
“Joanna”
“Our Curse”
“The Reaper”
“White Earth”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“Aya”
“Boogaloo and Graham”
“Butter Lamp”
“Parvaneh”
“The Phone Call”

 

With the critics awards ramping up, the Oscar race is beginning to take shape. This year has been an oddity with the lack of a consensus regarding many categories. However,

Boyhood is the undisputed frontrunner for Best Picture
With wins in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, and Britain under its belt, Boyhood is now the clear frontrunner for Best Picture, if we didn’t already know that. Despite its high acclaim, deafening buzz, and urgency, some pundits just couldn’t wrap their minds around the fact that the film is the frontrunner. Maybe their romp across the early critics awards will change their minds.

J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette are looking solid as well
Two other consistent winners so far have been J.K Simmons (Whiplash) and Patricia Arquette (Boyhood). The supporting races tend to be where we see one winner sweep through the awards season, so this is not a surprise. Unlike Oprah last year for The Butler, who had similar early buzz in the category, Arquette started her streak early on with the New York Film Critics Circle and continued her romp from there with a slight hitch in Boston. However, what is most interesting is that she won in Los Angeles for Best Actress. Although it was decided early on that she would campaign in supporting, there were still some outliers who thought she would be best suited in lead. This is going to be the one hinderance to her campaign. J.K. Simmons is pretty much a lock at this point. He plays the loud flamboyant villain role in a film receiving Best Picture buzz and on top of that, he’s a veteran. He has only dropped one race to Ed Norton, but it’s looking like he might be our one lock.

Michael Keaton might not be the absolute lock we think he is
From the beginning of the derby season we saw Michael Keaton get out of the gate quickly and stay out front for his performance in Birdman, however in what should have been easy wins Keaton lost. He dropped NYFCC to Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Los Angeles to Tom Hardy (Locke), and New York Online to Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything). He did have wins in Boston and NBR, but he may not be the lock we originally thought he was. What he does have going for him is that Hardy is a long shot for a nom and Spall is teetering on the edge. Redmayne is going to be his main competitor and the big awards like SAG, the Globes, and BFCA are going to be his battleground.

We have to look out for A Most Violent Year
The Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain film has won a single award for Best Picture so far this season, but that award means I’m throwing it into the Best Picture race right now. Why? Because the last time the National Board of Review winner for Best Picture wasn’t nominated at the Oscars was 2000. That’s a long streak and one that I’m not going to ignore until it is broken. Even then, we haven’t seen the film yet. And when I mean we, I mean the public. A lot of what this film is going to ride on is buzz. It needs to build it. Right now, it’s speculation of its quality, but what it needs is the real stuff. Either way, it’s just yet another horse in this race.

Maybe we should pay attention to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night
With wins in both New York critics groups and both Boston groups, Oscar winner Marion Cotillard might be a bigger threat than we previously thought. The Best Actress category is locked up by Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike, Felicity Jones, and Reese Witherspoon, however that fifth spot has remained up for grabs. With this new found momentum, we might have found the actress to fill it. In other years, I would have paid less attention to an actress in a foreign language film getting the same attention, but Two Days, One Night has strong critical buzz and is at least going to be a nominee for Best Foreign Language film.

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According to Richard Roeper Woodley is a lock and I’m inclined to agree. Actually, I’ve thought Woodley could get an Oscar nomination since the beginning of this year, however with the strong reviews The Fault in Our Stars is getting it seems that that prediction may become a reality.

1. Her career is on a roll
Many Oscar pundits thought she would breakthrough and receive an nomination for her supporting role in The Decendents and although she missed out her career has been on fire. In addition to landing the starring role in The Hunger– I mean the Divergent series, she also won praises for her performance in The Spectacular Now. She’s proven that she is no longer just a lowly pregnant teenager on a sh!ty ABC family show anymore. With a career trajectory similar to Jennifer Lawrence, she may also be on her way to a win.

2. The Fault in Our Stars was one of the biggest summer movies
It’s no secret that the John Green book is a hit among teenage girls, teenage boys, young adults, some even in their 20s… anyway the movie has a lot of buzz behind it that may carry it over the hump of its early release date. This coupled with the positive reviews for the film give her the added boost, especially if the film receives additional Oscar nominations (see next point).

Related Article: ‘THE FAULT IN OUR STARS’ REVIEW: SHAILENE WOODLEY GRACEFULLY LEADS THIS CHARMING FILM

3. The film has the potential to receive additional Oscar nominations
While I think Best Picture is out of the question, a nomination in Adapted Screenplay or perhaps even for one of the songs on its soundtrack are not far fetched. Why is this important? It is rare for a movie to receive a singular nomination for an actor. When Meryl Streep was nominated for The Iron Lady, it also received a make-up nomination as did Marion Cotilliard in La Vie en Rose. While the pattern is not solid in every acting category, it seems that almost every actress nominated in the lead category thus far was not the only nomination her film had. This is mostly due to the film needing some added merit.

4. She could be the one dark horse nominee
What do Laura Linney in The Savages, Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine have in common? They were all the one nominee that seemed out of place. None of them received SAG nominations for their films and seemed to be that one contender that popped up here and there, but would probably be snubbed in the end. Woodley has set herself up in that same position. I can see her winning several critics awards, but missing out on SAG and maybe even critics choice, then surprise at the Oscars.

5. It’s a damn good performance
It’s no exaggeration when I say that this is the performance of a lifetime. She was able to carry an entire movie on her back full of powerhouse emotions, but seem so natural, like she wasn’t even acting at all. Sometimes, that’s all you need.

Summer blockbusters rarely make a huge impression at the Oscars. Usually it’s a Visual Effects nomination, or something for sound, but even those are saved for more Oscar friendly movies. For example, The Avengers became the 3rd highest grossing film last year, however at the Oscars they were delegated a single nomination for Best Visual Effects. Now, we weren’t expecting a Best Picture nomination, but the lack of tech nominations was a little shocking.

Another summer movie Pacific Rim was expected to reap at least 3 nominations, but ended up being completely snubbed. The question is why? These films had the buzz and the acclaim. The Avengers achieved a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, while Pacific Rim received a 72%. However, it seems that there is a certain bias against big budget sci-fi and fantasy movies in the Academy, although Gravity did perfectly fine.

What makes Godzilla unique is its position as one of the best summer blockbusters in years, as some critics put it. It’s also a clear technical achievement, but it may suffer the same fate as Pacific Rim and The Avengers because it doesn’t look like everything else nominated. Many critics complemented the human drama involved, but in the end it is a clear monster movie. While it may receive a Visual Effects nomination, the sound categories, film editing, cinematography, and production design seem out of the question.

The one time we’ve seen a sort of monster movie succeed at the Oscars is in 2005 with King Kong. It was nominated for Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Production Design, winning all but the last. Could the more unconventional Godzilla achieve this? Maybe. Only time will tell.

At this early stage we could very well see Godzilla do well in the technical fields, but if any clear alternatives emerge, such as Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, then the chances for it to receive more than a Visual Effects nomination become more slim.

 

 

I will be live blogging my reactions to the 86th Academy Awards. Refresh this page for my latest thoughts (and frustrations) on winners, the ceremony, and all things Oscar.

Check out my predictions here to see how I’m doing, and check out Craig Ismali’s predictions here! Check out my twitter more frequent updates (https://twitter.com/karl_delo)

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Update 45: Overall it was a boring year for the Oscars. Almost every single frontrunner ended up winning, which screwed with my predictions. The great thing is that the deserving winner won most of the time, it was a good show and I’m happy for most of the winners. Check out our full thoughts on Indecent Disclosure on 91.3 FM on Wednesday @ 6pm.

Update 44: Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave. From the minute I heard about the movie I know it was going to win. It is pure Oscar bait, but also a phenomenal movie.

Update 43: Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. I couldn’t buy into the hype. Does anyone ever know what he is talking about?

Update 42: Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Gasp, I’m shocked. Great speech. Class act. That’s it.

Update 41: Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity. And the sweep is complete. He is a visionary director. Again, I have to say, I know a lot of people credit the film’s success to the visual effects, but he kept the film grounded (heh) in something human.

Update 40: The legendary Sidney Poitier should have presented Best Picture, but Best Director works too. For a kick I would definitely watch his Oscar win, it’s lovely.

Update 39: Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her. Can I be Spike Jonze when I grow up? Literally the perfect balance between awkward and charming. He really deserved this, it was the most ORIGINAL screenplay of the year, it just so happens to be laced with emotion and heartbreak and humanity.

Update 38: Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave. BOOM! 12 Years just sealed the deal with that one I’m pretty sure. Although I would have loved it to have been Before Midnight, it is still a deserved win.

Update 37: Best Original Song: “Let it Go”, Frozen. Get that EGOT Bobby! And that was a freakin’ Oscar speech. Hands down the best of the night, closely followed by Lupita.

Update 36: Best Original Score: Stephen Price, Gravity. I knew he was going to win, but I was still holding on for Her to take it.

Update 35: THAT IS HOW YOU GIVE AN OSCAR PERFORMANCE! Idina Menzel killed it in her performance of “Let it Go” from Frozen.  #datbeltdoe

Update 34: We have lost some giants this year. This generation has some enormous shows to fill. Thank you for all the memories.

Side note: That is how you do an In Memoriam segment. For once it was well ended and fascinating to watch.

Update 33: Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby. This is one of those cases where I should have gone with my gut opposed to my head.

Update 32: That was odd. I don’t understand these “tributes”. A song and a clip package don’t seem like that’s the due that these films (The Wizard of Oz this year and James Bond last year) deserve.

Update 31: Best Film Editing: Gravity. I tried to be ballsy with my prediction and it nipped me in the bud.

Update 30: Best Cinematography: Gravity. A well deserved win. I know a lot of people say that this is a CGI film, but there is still no film without the photography. And the Gravity train keeps on rolling.

Also, what a touching and simple tribute to Harold Ramis from Bill Murray.

Update 29: I must also mention that with that loss American Hustle lost what little chance they had left at winning Best Picture.

Update 28: Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave. A well deserved win and standing ovation. For once the Oscars did something right. I don’t care if you never watched the movie, you just can’t help but love the woman. I wish her all the best in her career.

Update 27: Best Sound Editing: Gravity. Shocker x2.

Update 26: Best Sound Mixing: Gravity. Shocker.

Update 25: Most epic selfie ever.

Update 24: I really appreciate what U2 was trying to do with “Ordinary Love”, but I really need “Let it Go” to win. However, with that standing ovation I’m not so confident now.

On a side note, what the hell happened to this Heroes theme. It’s mentioned twice and that’s it.

Update 23: Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty. Eh.

Update 22: Kevin Spacey doing Frank Underwood on the telecast gave me life.

Update 21: Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet from Stardom. A good documentary, but compared to the crop of nominees this year it feels like a bit of a safe choice.

Also, where the hell did that come from?

Update 20: Best Documentary Short Feature: The Lady in Number 6. Such a great and worthy winner with a great story to tell. I’m just sad that “the lady” couldn’t be there. RIP.

Update 19: Best Live Action Short Film: Helium. Damn it. I wished I called that one. It was such a simple prediction, but everyone was going for The Voorman Problem.

Update 18: That was an absolutely gorgeous performance of “The Moon Song” from Her by Karen O and Ezra Koenig. That was literally every hipsters wet dream. Now, why didn’t they think of letting the song nominees perform before?

Update 17: Best Visual Effects: Gravity. And let the sweep begin.

Update 16: Best Animated Feature: Frozen. Finally happened for Disney. A well deserved win. It was beautifully animated, written, and if you don’t love the song “Let it Go”, we might not be able to be friends.

Update 15: Best Animated Short: Mr. Hublot

Update 14: Harrison Ford wins the award for most disgruntled elderly Oscar presenter.

Update 13: Best Makeup & Hairstlying: Dallas Buyers Club. Looks like they won an Oscar and a pair of Globes.

Update 12: Best Costume Design: Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby. A well deserved win for a terrible movie.

The craft category winners tend to give cut and dry, and sometime awkward, speeches, but Martin did a great job.

Update 11: Points to Pharrell for wearing his infamous hat during his performance of “Happy”. Extra points to Lupita Nyong’o, Meryl Streep, and Amy Adams for their dances. Bonus points for getting the crowd to actually get up and dance. The Oscars are now not mediocrely dull.

Update 10: I’m liking the fact that they actually are somewhat carrying through with their theme this year, other than having Catherine Zeta-Jones lip synch to a badly choreographed version of “All the Jazz”.

Update 9: Leto gave an absolutely inspiring and emotional speech. That was a damn good speech. He thanked who he needed to thank and delivered it with eloquence.

Update 8: Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. Shocker.

Update 7: Ellen Degeneres gave a solid, but safe monologue. I did find the line: “Option #1: 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture, option #2: you’re all racists” absolutely hilarious.

Update 6: Ellen looks like she should jump on a horse and yell “the British are coming! The British are coming!”

Update 5: Watching Kevin Spacey speak without his southern accent is the oddest experience now. I kept on expecting him to turn the camera and say: “What fools. They think they can join the elite group of Oscar winners so easily. I pity them.”

Update 4: In other news, Tyson Beckford called Julia Roberts “Jessica Roberts.”

Update 3: Jennifer Lawrence fell… again. She really needs to learn how to walk.

Update 2: Prayer circle for Leonardo DiCaprio: https://vine.co/v/MAaA6JnqYlH

Update 1: Can we just talk about how Pharrell is wearing shorts to the red carpet?

This category is pretty much locked up. “Gravity” probably will and deserves to win. Even I, a complete idiot when it comes to sound design, can tell that the sound mixing is something to marvel at.

If I had to pick a spoiler, I would go with “Inside Llewyn Davis”. Music films tend to do well here (“Chicago”, “Ray”, “Dreamgirls”, “Les Miserables”). The only reason I don’t have the winning is because of the film above.

Check out the rest of my Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: “Gravity”
Could Win: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Should Win: “Gravity”
Should have been nominated: “Pacific Rim”

I am no expert in Sound Design, but I see an upset brewing in this category. “Gravity” is expected to sweep 6-7 awards, possibly up to 8 if it wins Best Picture. However, I think that “Captain Phillips” has a good chance to upset.

Often we say the biggest set wins Best Production Design, the most elaborate costumes win Best Costume Design, and the loudest movie wins Best Sound Editing. In this case, wouldn’t “Captain Phillips” be the winner? It has the sounds of the oceans, creaks of the boats, sounds of gunshots. The entire movie is almost tailor made for this category.

I still think “Gravity” is the frontrunner, but it’s not the lock that it is in Best Sound Mixing.

Check out the rest of my Oscar predictions here!

Will Win: “Gravity”
Could Win: “Captain Phillips”
Should Win: I’m no expert, but “Captain Phillips” sounded great to me
Should have been nominated: “Pacific Rim” (The roar of the monsters scared the sh!t out of me.)