Category: Predictions

Lead Actor in a Drama Series is the most unpredictable category at the Emmys this year

Lead Actor in a Drama Series is a wide open category. Two of last year’s nominees, Jon Hamm (Mad Men) and Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), are ineligible this year and only two seem like locks.

The two actors that are locks for nominations are also the ones that are most competitive for the win. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) seems to have just missed the win every year he was nominated. But with rivals Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm out of the way, he has a clear path to finally nabbing the prize. Plus, his portrayal is so acclaimed that it’s just a matter of time before he wins.

However, the one person he has to get through is Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul). Not only has he receive acclaim for his performance, the series is also riding on a strong wave of support. But they have to watch out for one other actor.

Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) is safe to reap a nomination. His series going to come into the Emmys hot and he is coming off nominations at SAG, the Globes, and a win at Critics’ Choice. More than that though, I think he could actually upset the two frontrunners for a win.

After them the category is blow wide open. Though Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) and Kyle Chandler (Bloodline) are both eligible, their shows haven’t made a hit with audiences or the Emmys. While I think that is going to affect Schreiber, Chandler should still be able to get in on name alone.

That leaves two open spots. Assuming it goes the Friday Night Lights route, I think Matthew Rhys (The Americans) gets in pretty easily. He has been receiving strong and consistent reviews and is an industry favorite. Plus, with his show finally breaking through last year in writing, I think it’s finally time for him to grab a nomination.

The last spot is going to be pretty tricky. A lot of people are predicting Emmy favorites Paul Giamatti and Damien Lewis from Billions. But is anyone really watching that show? While I understand they could get in on name alone, there just doesn’t feel like there’s any support behind them or the show.

A show that I can see being embraced by the Emmys is Hulu’s The Path and its two leads: Aaron Paul and Hugh Dancy. I think Paul is more likely to be nominated, but it all depends on how the Emmys react to the network. If they don’t go with one of them it’s either going to be Bobby Cannavale (Vinyl) or Wagner Moura (Narcos) or Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey). Yes, the race is that open. I’m sticking with Paul for the last spot but this is the most unpredictable category of the year.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Aaron Paul (The Path)
Matthew Rhys (The American)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)***

***Predicted winner

Newcomers will define the Emmy race for Comedy Series

Comedy Series feels a lot more open than it actually is. While two of last year’s nominees, Louie and Parks and Recreation, are ineligible this year, the other five are returning. However, I think there is room for a lot of movement in the category especially with this new golden age of comedy we seem to be in.

Last year’s winner Veep is locked to return. Despite a slow start to the season, it eventually picked back up to its peak quality. However, a win might be a bit harder to come by. When a show wins later in its run, it’s rare to see it go on a winning streak like shows that win in their first season. For example, Sex and the City and the city won for season three but didn’t win again. Will & Grace won for season two and never won again. Everybody Loves Raymond won for their seventh season, lost the next season, then won for their final season. The Office won for season two, but never won again. Seinfeld won for season four and never won again.

Compare that to Fraiser, 30 Rock, and Modern Family, which all won for their first seasons and went on to go on a winning streak. The first and last of which hold the record for the most wins in this category.

Now, I may be looking too far into this, but I really think there is a pattern here. The reason series win so late in their runs is because they deserve a win for that specific season. Sometimes there’s also the sense that the Emmys already gave them their due after they had to wait.

If Veep doesn’t take it, then I think it’s going to be one of two series that does. The first is Black-ish as I mentioned in my predictions for Drama Series, it’s risky to predict a series that hasn’t been nominated before this high on your predictions, but I think Black-ish is in a unique position. First, it’s a series that features an all minority cast. In this year where diversity has been at the top of discussion that matters. Second, it has had two extremely strong and timely episodes that will be rallied behind in the both the writing and directing categories. Third, with Big Bang Theory snubbed last year multi-cam shows no longer have a representative in the category, blackish could fill that spot. Lastly, Anthony Anderson received a nomination last year. That means that the show is in discussion.

I think in writing this I’ve convinced myself that they could actually win. Well, let’s move on.

The second series that I think could beat Veep is Transparent. After a huge nominations haul last year and two major wins for lead actor and writing, they are in the perfect spot to launch into a series win. However, nominations will be very telling here. If they maintain or gain nominations, then I think they are going to be a threat. If they drop anywhere they should have easily gotten in, then they’re vulnerable.

The next four contenders all have strengths and vulnerabilities. Five-time (bleh) winner Modern Family seems to have one more year in them. After being dropped down to only three major nominations, the show has lost a lot of steam. I really think that there could be a huge shock and they are snubbed. Some pundits are even predicting that already. However, I think they will have one last year left before finally bowing out of the race.

After them a few streaming shows will be competing with an HBO show for the last few spots. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt had a huge nominations year last year, but after its premiere this year it feels like all the buzz fell away. Same goes for Master of None. However, I think both should be safely in because of the names behind them and, for the latter specifically, the strong critical acclaim.

That leaves one last spot. Silicon Valley has proven to be a consistent contender. Despite their success, they haven’t been able to break into the acting races, which is often a prerequisite to winning a series award. They are the most vulnerable in my opinion including Unbreakable.

But I think Hulu’s Casual is in a great place to sneak in. It has a strong name behind it in Jason Reitman and has received strong reviews. Its biggest drawback is that it’s on an untested network. While that was the argument we used for Amazon last year, the series didn’t have the same cultural impact that Transparent had.

If I had to pick, my head would go with Silicon Valley for the last spot. But my gut is telling me that Casual is going to. For the sake of a gutsy pick I’m going with the latter.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

Black-ish***
Casual
Master of None
Modern Family
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

***Predicted winner

Five of last year’s Emmys’ Drama Series nominees should make it back in. Which one will be left off?

Drama Series is a category that probably won’t have a lot of movement from last year’s line-up. Of course, Mad Men is out of the way which opens up a spot, but barring a huge shock, at least five other nominees from last year should return.

Starting from the top, last year’s winner Game of Thrones is guaranteed to come back following a critically-acclaimed season. A win is also a strong possibility already. There isn’t a single contender that will have a rallying effect similar to the way that Game of Thrones had one last year when Breaking Bad left the race. However, the closest contender is looking to be Better Call Saul.

While Saul doesn’t have the heat that the original series had, it certainly has the critical support behind it. I can see the series going one of two ways. The first option is that it explodes with nominations picking up acting nods (likely in supporting actress, supporting actor, and guest actor) and breaking into the directing race. The other direction is that it receives generally the same nominations as last year and possibly dropping out of writing. If it goes the first route then they are in contention for the win. If it goes that latter, then there chances diminish.

After Saul, the most likely contender is Mr. Robot. I know it’s risky to predict a new show this high on the list. Sometimes it pans out like Homeland and sometimes it doesn’t like [insert show here]. However, the show has kept in the conversation all year with their wins at Critics’ Choice and the Globes. On top of that, the second season has been airing during voting, which renewed the conversation around the show. They’re looking to nab several nominations because of their smart submissions (they only submitted one episode for writing and directing) and cast (Malek and Slater have good chances in their categories). I’m not going to predict them for the win, but after Homeland’s surprise win for their first season there is a new sense that a hot new show is a threat.

Lastly, I think Homeland is pretty soundly in the running. I don’t think they’ll win, but there has been enough critical heft behind the show for it to reap another nomination.

After the top four, the next three become a bit murky. I can see all three easily getting back in, but I can also see any of the three dropping out. The least likely to go in my opinion is Downton Abbey. Despite slowly losing nominations, they’ve consistently been nominated for Drama Series and I doubt they will be dropped in their final season.

If you asked my a few months ago whether House of Cards was going to be nominated, I’d go as far as telling you that I think it could actually win. However, the buzz has completely gone away. Their one saving grace is that despite being dropped from both the writing and directing categories, they still hauled in a healthy number of nominations and two wins last year. Both of which were surprises.

The one show from last year’s line-up that I’m not as confident in saying will come back is Orange is the New Black. After a strong showing two years ago on the comedy side, last year they were cut down to three nominations. Though they did win in supporting actress, Uzo Aduba is such a popular actor that no one should have been surprised by her win. Looking at the possible trajectories, I can’t really see many that includes it in the line-up.

So let’s say Orange misses. Who replaces them?

Some pundits are betting on perennially ignored The Americans to finally make it in after getting a writing nomination last year. However, I think it may a be a bit too early in their rise to get a Drama Series nomination. Assuming they follow the Friday Night Lights trajectory, they should get acting nominations this year before finally getting a series nominations. That’s option one.

Option two is a more left field choice. WGN’s Underground has been critically lauded and is going to get a strong campaign behind it.

Lastly, Empire could make it in this year after being generally ignored last year save for a nomination for Taraji P. Henson. However, the Emmys are often a year behind so that buzz from the show last year may finally push it over the edge.

So, who do I think it will be? I think The Americans will do it. It’s between them and Orange. However, the Emmys rarely go to plan, which is why I think the latter missing is more likely than getting a nearly identical line-up to last year.

Check out my 2016 Emmy Predictions!

My Predictions:

The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones**
Homeland
House of Cards
Mr. Robot

**Predicted winner

This year, Limited Series is a surprisingly competitive category this year. There are feasibly nine legitimate competitors for the five slots. At the top of the list is FX’s “The People vs. O.J. Simpson”. They are going to feasibly be the nominations leader with multiple nominations in each category and it has the cultural clout that you don’t often get with a limited series.

Right behind them is the early frontrunner and last year’s winner, “Fargo”. It surpassed reviews from last year as well as buzz. I can see them going toe to toe with “The People vs. O.J. Simpson” in almost every category. It’s going to be one of the closest races on Emmy night.

Closely following the two frontrunners is “American Crime”. It had a great year last year including a win for Regina King, who is certain to return. However, the one thing against it is that it doesn’t have nearly as much buzz as the first two series I mentioned. It’s going to have to cover a lot of ground to overcome that.

The above three series are pretty much locks. However, these last two spots are going to be a fight. It can be a combination of six shows that are all in contention. “Roots”, which is a reimagining of the 1977 miniseries that famously was nominated 37 Emmys, could go one of three ways: it is nominated only for Best Limited Series and a few other categories, it is nominated in several categories except for Best Limited Series, it is a nomination juggernaut.

Right now, I am leaning towards the first option. I don’t think it’s going to be a huge factor in nominations, but it is going to get a few that will justify a series nomination. I can also see it easily missing.

Then there’s the question of the ever confusingly nominated “American Horror Story: Hotel”. The show has been consistently nominated since inception, but never seems to have caught on with wins. The “Hotel” season was probably the least lauded, but last year they hit a high in nominations. Sadly, I can’t see it not being nominated, but it could be bumped out because of the crowded year.

1. “The People vs. O.J. Simpson”
2. “Fargo”
3. “American Crime”
4. “Roots”
5. “American Horror Story: Hotel”
   ———————–
6. “The Night Manager”
7. “Show Me A Hero”
8. “Flesh and Bone”
9. “11.22.63”
10. “True Detective”

The Oscars are over, which means it’s time to turn our attention to the Television kudos, the Emmys and our 2016 Emmy Predictions! Last year was an odd year for the Emmys with several different changes giving us surprise winners. Of the most important changes:

1. During the nomination process in lead and supporting categories, there will be six nominees as usual. However, there can be seven or eight nominees if the seventh and eighth place person on that ballot comes with 2% of the sixth place person. That’s why we had seven nominees in Lead Actor in a Comedy Series and Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
2. Instead of panels reviewing submitted episodes of the nominees, the full Television Academy is able to vote.

The second rule showed the most obvious effect with winners like Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) and Allison Janney (“Mom”) winning by lazy name checking rather than their tapes. Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”) and Anna Chlumsky (“Veep”) easily had the best tapes in their respective categories.

This is why this year at the Emmys is going to be the most interesting. Now that we’ve seen how this new system affects the winners and nominees, we can better predict the winners. On the drama side, Emmy heavy-hitter “Mad Men” opens up spots in several categories. Most importantly, Best Drama Series.

This year has been a particularly weak one, so there won’t be much movement.

Last year’s winner “Game of Thrones” will easily make it back into the race as well as perennial nominees “House of Cards” and “Downton Abbey.” First-time nominee “Better Call Saul” will make it back in as well following a strong year of nominations last year. Despite only receiving three nominations last year, “Orange is the New Black.” which was moved to drama after a new rule defining dramas as an hour-long, should make it back in because of the weak field.

That leaves two spots open. Golden Globe winner “Mr. Robot” has the best chance of any new show this season of breaking into the race. With the lack of contenders, it should be able to do it. That leaves the last spot to either previous winner “Homeland” and Netflix newcomer “Narcos.” Both series received generally positive reviews this year. However, the buzz for the former just doesn’t seem to be there

BEST DRAMA SERIES
1. Game of Thrones
2. House of Cards
3. Better Call Saul
4. Mr. Robot
5. Downton Abbey
6. Orange is the New Black
7. Narcos

8. Homeland
9. Vinyl
10. The Good Wife

The comedy side is quite the opposite. There is an abundant of contenders. However, it’s certain that previous winners “Veep” and “Modern Family” will return. “Transparent” will also come back following a great performance in nominations last year. After those three contenders, the waters get a little murky. Aziz Ansari’s highly acclaimed Netflix show “Master of None” has a great chance of breaking into the race after nominations at the Golden Globes and a win at Critics’ Choice. Perennial nominee “Silicon Valley” still seems to have legs, so the HBO show should come back along with a nominee last year, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.” 

The last spot could go a few different ways. Golden Globe winner for Best Comedy Series and Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy “Mozart in the Jungle” could make it in, especially after Amazon proved extremely successful with “Transparent.” However, until the Globe win I didn’t hear much buzz about the show. So I don’t think it will make it in too easily. Former perennial nominee “The Big Bang Theory” could make it back in after its 200th episode this year. Then there’s “Black-ish,” which had Anthony Anderson nominated last year and “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend,” the little CW show that could, which won a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice for it’s lead actress. However, I’m going to go with Fox’s “The Last Man on Earth.” It had a great year last year with four big nominations for both writing and directing, as well as lead actor and editing. It feels like a series nomination is the next natural step. Then again, that’s what I thought with “New Girl” and we know how that ended up.

BEST COMEDY SERIES
1. Veep
2. Modern Family
3. Transparent
4. Master of None
5. Silicon Valley
6. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
7. The Last Man on Earth

8. The Big Bang Theory
9. Mozart in the Jungle
10. Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Check back here for more 2016 Emmy Predictions!

I think everyone in the category for Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series breathed a sigh of relief when Orange is the New Black was deemed a drama series and, in turn, Uzo Aduba was pulled out of contention.

With her out of the way, it’s going to be a tight race with several women having phenomenal episode submissions. Last year’s winner Allison Janney (Mom) still has a shot due to one thing: her name. The six-time winner is consistently funny in Mom, playing the wild character to Anna Faris’ straight one. However, whether or not her name can pull her through over nominees with stronger submissions is going to be the question. Julie Bowen (Modern Family) could win her third Emmy if she submits the phenomenal “Connection Lost” episode. What’s going to be the biggest factor for her is the Modern Family fatigue. After all, they’re going for their sixth win in the Best Comedy category and have dropped yet again in total nominations.

I think the clear winner here based on tape is Anna Chulmpsky (Veep) who delivers an incredible speech in the episode “Convention” that is pure Emmy bait and fantastically performed. I mean, just see for yourself:

Plus, with Veep making a play for Comedy Series, she could be swept up. So I’m giving her the edge.

There are two wild cards in play. The first is Gaby Hoffman (Transparent), who nabbed a surprise nominations. The reason she is a wild card is because the voters picked the deserving supporting character from that show. Originally, we expected Judith Light to be the show’s supporting nomination. The reason this is relevant is because that means the voters are watching (and loving) the show. She could definitely pull this off depending on her submission.

The second wild card is Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt). Although she was never able to take the trophy home for 30 Rock, voters love her enough to nominate her year after year. She’s overdue for a win, and sometimes that’s enough.

Check out all our 2015 Emmy Predictions here!

1. Anna Chlumpsky, Veep (Suggested Episode Submission: “Convention”)
2. Julie Bowen, Modern Family (Suggested Episode Submission: “Connection Lost”)
3. Allison Janney, Mom
4. Gaby Hoffman, Transparent
5. Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable  Kimmy Schmidt (Suggested Episode Submission: “Kimmy Goes to a Party”)
6. Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
7. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
8. Niecy Nash, Getting On

The precursor awards of the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards tend not to affect the outcome of the Emmys. However, this year the race for Lead Actor in a Drama Series is looking to go to the winner of at least two of those awards. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) has been the bridesmaid for two Emmy cycles now, losing to Jeff Daniels and Bryan Cranston. It looks like he’s finally going to take it this time.

Perennial Emmy loser Jon Hamm (Mad Men) is assured to come back and could finally pull off a win for the show (it has lost every acting award it’s been nominated for) with a submission of the series finale “Person to Person.”

In addition to the two perennial nominees above, there are three new faces looking to join the race. Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) has turned the comic relief of Breaking Bad into one of the most intriguing characters of the television season. Depending on how the show fares at the Emmys, we could see a win for him, especially with his arsenal of phenomenal episodes. Dominic West (The Affair) can’t seem to break into the Emmy race. From The Wire to The Hour, he’s been egregiously snubbed, however the third time could be the charm. Again, it depends on how well the show is received. One nominee that can’t depend on his show is Cilve Owen (The Knick). While the Cinemax drama was well received, it has one thing against it. It’s on Cinemax. Owen can probably get in on buzz and name alone, but there are others in the mix like Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom), Terrence Howard (Empire), and Kyle Chandler (Bloodline) who could just as well take his place.

1. Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
2. Jon Hamm, Mad Men
3. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
4. Clive Owen, The Knick
5. Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
6. Dominic West, The Affair

Check out our complete list of 2015 Emmy Predictions HERE!

Isn’t it refreshing to have a year where an actress category is actually competitive? Lead Actress in a Drama Series was won by the same two women for the past 4 years, but with Homeland on the downswing and last year’s winner Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife) having to rely on submissions tapes, this year is especially open for a new winner.

That new winner is looking to be SAG winner Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder). Her performance pretty much speaks for itself (Plus, she has the fake cry face down. Take notes Kerry Washington and ugly crying champion Claire Danes), but on top of that, she has the buzz, the episodes, and the respect of the industry. She is the solid frontrunner.

Taraji P. Henson (Empire) has the monster hit of Empire behind her, plus the same buzz, episodes, and respect of the industry as Davis. The only difference here is that Davis had the luxury of competing in the precursors of the Globes and SAG. Henson is still a strong frontrunner, I think her biggest hurdle might be getting nominated depending on how the voters respond to the show.

After the three frontrunners, we have two strong returners in the mix. Robin Wright (House of Cards) was a frontrunner last year before the messed up her episode submission, however she should still safely return. Kerry Washington (Scandal) is losing a lot of buzz, so I’m thinking she drops out this year, however with a solid episode submission in “Run” if she is nominated I can say her making a run (pun intended) for the crown.

The last spot is going to be tough call. Three-time Emmy winner Claire Danes (Homeland) is losing a lot of steam with Homeland dropping out of the conversation like a rock. This year’s Globe winner Ruth Wilson (The Affair) should be able to slip in, however her globe win isn’t going to help her much here.

I’m playing it very conservatively here. A lot of contenders like Elizabeth Moss (Mad Men), Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel), and Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) can still slip in.

I think the most notable part of this category would be to see three women of color be nominated. Not only would it be a first, it would be a wonderful note to the changing landscape of television. Take note Oscars.

1. Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
2. Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
3. Taraji P. Henson, Empire
4. Robin Wright, House of Cards
5. Claire Danes, Homeland
6. Ruth Wilson, The Affair

Check out our complete list of 2015 Emmy Predictions HERE!

UPDATED 6/15/15

For Best Drama Series, we’re definitely going to see the perennial nominees like Game of Thrones, Mad Men, Downton Abbey, and House of Cards. However, the rest of the category is going to look pretty different from the past.

One of the major effects of the new rule changes is going to be the introduction of Orange is the New Black to the category. At this point, they are a virtual lock and are taking up the newly added seventh slot.

With Breaking Bad out of the way and True Detective being moved to Limited, we have room for at least two different nominees. Empire was the biggest hit of the season and garnered strong critical acclaim as well as commercial. It also has the fact that it’s a broadcast series (the majority of the Academy work in broadcast) and it’s likely to nab additional major nominations. Better Call Saul has garnered extremely positive reviews and strong ratings and looks to make a strong showing like its parent series.

The last spot is really going to be a mystery in the series races, since we’ve never had a year with this many nominees.The winner of the Globe often makes an appearance here, so The Affair has a chance to make an. Another new show may be the direct successor to Bad at the Emmys. Based on nominations last year, I’d say The Good Wife has a chance. However, many pundits predicted the series to make a return last year and it failed to do so.

Depending how the Emmys react to Bloodline and Homeland, we could see one of these shows make an appearance.

AS FOR THE WINNER, I think it’s going to be between three returning nominees since Breaking Bad is gone and there’s really no new show that feels like a first season winner. Game of Thrones has been a strong performer so far at the Emmys and the a strong second half of the season coupled with strong buzz can propel it to a win. If you asked me in March which show would win best drama series I’d say House of Cards with no hesitation. However, there’s really no buzz for it anymore and the season was the worst received so far. The last possibility is 4-time winner Mad Men. I know it hasn’t won a single award in the past two years, but there’s no denying the huge buzz around the show in Hollywood following the finale. It could follow The Sopranos, Everybody Loves Raymond, Sex and the City, and Breaking Bad as some of the shows in past years that have won for their final season.

Check out our complete list of 2015 Emmy Predictions HERE!

1. Game of Thrones
2. Mad Men
3. House of Cards
4. Orange is the New Black
5. Downton Abbey
6. Empire
7. The Affair